MACtion continues this week with the Buffalo Bulls and Central Michigan Chippewas clashing on Wednesday night.
College football odds expect a close contest in this Week 11 showdown with college football betting odds opening with the Bulls as short road faves before this line moved to a pick'em.
Here are my best free college football picks and predictions for Buffalo vs. Central Michigan on November 9.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan best odds
Buffalo vs Central Michigan picks and predictions
Buffalo has looked like the far better team since conference play began. The Bulls are 4-1 against MAC opponents with their only loss coming against the Ohio Bobcats, who might be the best team in the conference.
Central Michigan is 2-3 in conference play and its victories came against Akron and Northern Illinois, who are likely the two worst teams in the conference.
The Bulls don't stand out in any one area but they're more balanced on offense than CMU and have a bit more talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Buffalo's opportunistic defense is tied for second in the country with 2.4 takeaways per game and should be able to take advantage of a Chippewas team that is second-last in the country by averaging 2.5 giveaways. Add that to the fact that CMU is one of the most penalized schools in the nation and I'll fade the sloppier side at home.
My best bet: Buffalo moneyline (-102 at Pinnacle)
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Buffalo vs Central Michigan spread analysis
The Bulls began their season with three straight defeats, none more disappointing than their 37-31 home loss to FCS Holy Cross in Week 2.
However, they then reeled off five consecutive wins (going a perfect 5-0 ATS over that span) before losing by 21 points to Ohio last week.
The Chippewas are fresh off a 35-22 victory against the Northern Illinois Huskies. That said, they are still just 2-4 straight up and ATS over their last six games and their SU wins over that span came against the Huskies and Zips, who are a combined 3-15 on the year (1-9 in conference play).
The Bulls aren't explosive on offense but they are just as capable of moving the ball through the air as they are at churning out yards on the ground.
Buffalo has been stingy against the pass and has limited opposing QBs to a 55.5% completion percentage while picking them off eight times in five MAC games.
However, the Bulls have struggled to stop the run this season by allowing 5.0 yards per carry. That said, the Chippewas might not be able to exploit that weakness.
Reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year Lew Nichols hasn't been able to find holes and has totaled just 561 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry after rumbling for 1,848 yards and 5.4 ypc last year.
Central Michigan's best chance of taking advantage of Buffalo's weak run defense might come from redshirt freshman quarterback Jase Bauer.
Bauer has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two games and seems to be pushing incumbent starter Daniel Richardson, who isn't anywhere near as mobile and has completed just 56.6% of his passes with 6.2 yards per attempt.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Over/Under analysis
Both schools have been more impressive on defense than offense. Thanks to a strong pass rush led by Thomas Incoom, CMU is allowing just 331 yards per game in conference play — the lowest number in the MAC.
Statistically, the Chippewas are slightly better on defense but Buffalo's numbers are a bit skewed since they faced the top two offenses in the conference in Ohio and Toledo over the last couple of weeks.
It's a bit surprising that the Bulls have been so weak against the run because on paper their front seven is formidable. Defensive tackle Daymond Williams is one of the best interior defenders in the conference while James Patterson and Shaun Dolac make up arguably the top linebacker duo.
Coming into this season, there were more question marks around their secondary after adding several new faces through the transfer portal.
They've exceeded expectations in that area with former Florida Gator Elijah Blades becoming a lockdown corner and Jahmin Muse combining with Marcus Fuqua to give the Bulls a playmaking pair of safeties.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan betting trend to know
The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four contests at home. Find more NCAA betting trends for Buffalo vs. Central Michigan.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan game info
| Location: | Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 9, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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Buffalo vs Central Michigan weather
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