Buffalo vs Toledo Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mess With the Bulls, Get the Win

Few things are wilder in college football than MACtion. It targets the most diehard fans and bettors, who need their football fix on midweek days in November. It’s a tradition unlike any other and with it kicking off on Halloween tonight, the matchup between Buffalo and Toledo should be particularly spooky for Bulls bettors. 

The Rockets have been a dominant force in the MAC this season, perched atop the West division at 4-0 in conference with a 7-1 record on the season. They’re coming off a huge road victory, and cover, against the East-leading Miami (OH) RedHawks and taking on a plodding 3-5 Buffalo squad at home, which is why the college football odds have them heavily favored.

Find out my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for Buffalo vs. Toledo on Tuesday, October 31.

Buffalo vs Toledo best odds

Buffalo vs Toledo picks and predictions

After winning the MAC Championship in 2022, Toledo brought back the vast majority of its conference championship team.

The Rockets ranked 11th in SP+’s returning production metric heading into the season bringing back 82% of its offensive production and 72% of its defensive production. That continuity under eighth-year head coach Jason Candle has resulted in Toledo dominating the MAC with their lone loss on the season being by two points in the opener at Illinois.

That impressive play should continue in their MACtion opener against Maurice Linguist’s Buffalo Bulls, who are a 15.5-point underdog because of their struggling offense.

The Bulls rank 106th in EPA per play on offense this season and have really struggled to get much going through the air. While they’ve found some success on the ground — 68th in EPA per rush — they’re just 115th in EPA per pass.

Behind second-year starter Cole Snyder, Buffalo is throwing for just 196.3 yards per game and are tied for the 20th most interceptions thrown this season with nine while averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, fourth lowest in the country.

They’ll have an even tougher time getting things going through the air against a Toledo defense that’s 36th in EPA per play and 19th in EPA per pass. Led by potential top-100 NFL Draft pick Quinyon Mitchell, the Rockets are holding teams to just 183 passing yards per game, 18th-best in the country.

It’s been lockdown coverage all season from Mitchell and potential All-MAC performers Maxen Hook and Nate Bauer, with the secondary having intercepted more passes, eight, than they’ve allowed touchdown passes, seven. That’s tied for the seventh least touchdown passes allowed in the country. 

Even with some bright spots in their rushing attack, the Bulls are still averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and scoring only 25.9 points per game, the 78th most in college football. And the Rockets have the dogs to slow down running backs Ron Cook and Mike Washington. Linebacker Dallas Gant and defensive tackle Judge Culpepper, both Big Ten transfers, have been disruptive all season against the run, combining for 11.5 TFLs in eight games.

What’s really kept the Rockets blasting by opponents though, and should be the reason they win by more than two touchdowns, is their offense. Toledo has been one of the best offenses in college football ranking fifth in EPA per play, 13th in EPA per pass, and seventh in EPA per rush.

All-MAC quarterback Dequan Finn has helped the offense score 34.9 points per game, 23rd best in the country while totaling 441.6 yards per game. With Finn’s arm talent and smooth mechanics, he’s thrown for 1,425 yards and 14 scores while taking advantage of a deep receiver room led by Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III.

Those two can create mismatches against Buffalo’s secondary, but the run game will be the big difference maker, especially with the weather expected to be nasty. With Finn’s mobility (472 rushing and five TDs this season) and one of the best backs in the Group of Five, Peny Boone, Toledo is third in the country in rushing yards per game at 232.5.

Boone, a Maryland transfer, has been a hammer with his size and contact balance helping him run for 865 yards while averaging seven per carry with nine touchdowns in eight games. It might be a low-scoring game with the weather, but behind Finn and Boone, the Rockets can run away with it. 

My best bet: Toledo -15.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Buffalo vs Toledo same-game parlay

Toledo -15.5

Under 52.5

+284 at bet365

With Buffalo struggling to score points and the weather, Under 52.5 is quite enticing for this MAC battle.

Wet snow is expected Tuesday evening which should both benefit the Rockets and the Under. Toledo is going to be in a position to run all over a Bull’s defense that’s allowing 182.4 rushing yards per game.

That weather will lead to a more run-heavy game to keep the clock moving and help Toledo defensive coordinator Vince Kehres’ unit. With Buffalo’s passing attack already struggling and the elements playing a factor, it will allow Toledo to key in against the run.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Buffalo vs Toledo spread and Over/Under analysis

Toledo has been as good as it gets in the MAC this season and opened as 14.5-point home favorites with the line continuing to shift in their direction. It’s up to -15.5 at most books.

While the Rockets have been running through opponents, they’re just 3-5 against the spread. They covered last week against their toughest MAC opponent in Miami (OH) but hadn’t covered in their previous three conference games.

The Bulls on the other hand have been better at covering than winning, going 5-3 against the spread. They’re 3-1 against the spread in the MAC and 4-1 as underdogs this season.

The total opened at 52.5 or 53 depending on the book and has moved around slightly with most books settling in at 52.5.

This season, the Rockets are 3-5 overall and 2-2 in the MAC when betting the Over. In their last two MAC games, Ball State and Miami (OH), they’ve hit the Under.

Strangely the Bulls are 4-4 when betting the Over after hitting it in their first four games of the season before hitting four straight Unders. They’re 1-3 betting the Over when the total is 52.5 or less this season.

Buffalo vs Toledo betting trend to know

Buffalo has hit the Team Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 90% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Buffalo vs Toledo.

Buffalo vs Toledo game info

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Buffalo vs Toledo weather

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