Bet against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at your own peril. They have become a gambling wagon this season, somehow escaping much notice in the process.
Some might argue the Illinois Fighting Illini warrant similar praise but the Illini have fallen short of covering the spread in two of their last three games, and it's hard to heap the praise of blind faith on anyone with that recent track record.
My Minnesota vs. Illinois predictions will have more thought to them than that, but they trust the Gophers all the same. Any free college football picks should give some deference to Minnesota’s skill position players.
Read on to see why Minnesota deserves more of your trust, with kickoff set for noon p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Champaign, and the game airing on FS1.
Minnesota vs Illinois prediction and best bet
My best bet
Minnesota -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Minnesota has fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations exactly once this season, a 31-14 loss to Iowa as a 3-point favorite on Sept. 21. In the Gophers’ season opener, they pushed against the spread, losing by two to North Carolina as, indeed, two-point underdogs.
Only so much can be gleaned from the two games between those, with Minnesota easily topping the spreads of -26.5 and -16.5 in 48- and 27-point wins, respectively. Beating up on FCS-level Rhode Island and overmatched Nevada is preferable to the alternative, but it is not inherently informative.
Looking at those box scores, though, something becomes clear. Gophers’ star running back Darius Taylor was not 100%. He missed the season opener to injury, and then in the next three games took just 35 carries for 222 total yards. Add in 13 carries for 36 yards at Michigan, and Taylor’s average rush through his first four games was only 5.38 yards.
In the three games since, including one game stymied at UCLA, Taylor has taken 56 carries for 255 yards, a 4.55 average.
On the surface, that looks like a step backward. But what stands out is the attempts per game, 18.7 in the last three compared to just 12 per game in Taylor’s first four this season.
It is no coincidence that Minnesota has covered the spread in the last three games by an average of 12 points compared to oddsmakers’ expectations. It goes a bit below the radar, but P.J. Fleck prefers to run the ball, to such a degree it should negatively impact the Gophers on the quarterback transfer market next offseason.
With Taylor a healthy ballcarrier, Minnesota fares much better. Meanwhile, Illinois ranks No. 87 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb-graphs. Worse yet, the Illini give up success on 48% of opposing rushes, No. 126 in the country.
Taylor and the Gophers should control the game on Saturday afternoon, and that alone is enough reason to believe in Minnesota winning this Big Ten West matchup by at least a field goal.
Minnesota vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Minnesota -2.5
Darius Taylor Over 69.5 rushing yards / Darius Taylor anytime TD
Under 45.5
Taylor has crossed this yardage prop in two of the last three games, against USC and Maryland. By EPA per rush against, the Trojans (No. 47 in the country, -0.033 EPA per rush against) and the Terrapins (No. 37, -0.046) are significantly better than Illinois, ranked No. 87 because it gives up +0.027 EPA per rush against.
In other words, Taylor should get plenty of chances to run because those chances will improve Minnesota’s standing. It should also be noted he has scored in each of the last two games and five of seven this season.
If Taylor is carrying the lion’s share of Minnesota’s offense, that will slow down this game. The Gophers are better defensively, an excellent passing defense well-suited to fluster Illinois’s offensive strength.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs Illinois odds
Minnesota vs Illinois live odds
Minnesota vs Illinois opening odds
- Minnesota vs. Illinois spread: Illinois +2.5
- Minnesota vs. Illinois moneyline: Minnesota -150, Illinois +125
- Minnesota vs. Illinois Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Minnesota vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first genuine lines were simply off, favoring Illinois by three points before the market quickly corrected. Why? Likely because the Illini are at home and mere advanced metrics do not entirely understand the impact Taylor can have when healthy, thus underrating his impact in recent weeks.
- Once corrected, this spread held at -2.5 toward Minnesota into Monday afternoon, then ticking up to -3.
- This total first hit the market at 46.5 and quickly fell to 45.5, remaining there all week.
- The fact that the spread moved so much while the total remained steady underscores the fact that the first spread offering was simply wrong.
Minnesota vs Illinois betting trend to know
Two of the Golden Gophers' last three games have gone Under their totals, as have three of the Fighting Illini's last four. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs Illinois.
Minnesota vs Illinois game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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