With a potential trip to the Big Ten Championship on the line, Ohio State and Penn State go toe-to-toe in a Top 4 showdown at Beaver Stadium.
The Buckeyes have already lost a Top 5 game, while the Nittany Lions have looked uneven throughout the season. I’m expecting a defensive battle in my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 2, and that will be reflected in my player prop selections.
Ohio State vs Penn State props for Week 10
- Will Howard Under 230.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Kaytron Allen Under 60.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-1.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ohio State vs Penn State college football player props
Prop bet #1: Will Howard Under 230.5 passing yards
Has Will Howard been all that much better this season for Ryan Day’s program than Kyle McCord was last year? His mobility is certainly an X-factor, but he’s a far cry from the superstar QBs like CJ Stroud and Justin Fields that the Ohio State Buckeyes have had in the past.
Howard has been solid but unspectacular so far this season, and Penn State poses a difficult matchup for him. But the biggest reason I’m taking the Under on Howard’s passing yards is because of his offensive line.
The Buckeyes lost potential first-round left tackle Josh Simmons to an injury against Oregon and then had two weeks to put a plan together for Nebraska. Instead, it looked like their offensive line had never played football before when they took on the Cornhuskers.
To make matters worse, Simmons’ replacement, Zen Michalski, got injured against Nebraska and his availability is in doubt against the Penn State Nittany Lions. And their pass rush is far scarier than the Cornhuskers’.
The trio of Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and Zane Durant have combined for 58 pressures this season and each has a pass rush win rate of 13.8% or better, per PFF. While Dennis-Sutton may miss the game with an injury, Carter and Durant should still create plenty of problems for Ohio State.
So with Howard under constant pressure, he’s going to have a heck of a time trying to rack up yards against a defense that’s 16th in EPA per dropback and third in SP+.
Not to mention, he’s only made nine big-time throws this season vs. eight turnover-worthy plays.
Prop bet #2: Kaytron Allen Under 60.5 rushing yards
This game might end up looking like an old school Big Ten battle with the way these two defenses have played this season.
With it unclear whether or not Penn State QB Drew Allar will play, Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will likely be focused on slowing down the Nittany Lions run game.
Despite Nicholas Singleton being considered the more talented player, Kaytron Allen has been the lead back as of late. However, Allen’s lack of explosiveness has led him to average fewer than four yards per carry in two of his last three games.
And the Buckeyes are a far more challenging matchup than USC or UCLA. Ohio State has the No. 1 defense by SP+ and is allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (91.3).
Running into this front seven is a near impossible task with Ty Hamilton, Cody Simon, Sonny Styles, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, and Jack Sawyer combining for over 60 run stops this season.
Those six are a major reason why the Buckeyes are second in the country in EPA per rush on defense.
Meanwhile Kaytron Allen has forced just 19 missed tackles and only has four runs of 15-plus yards this season. All four came in two games against Bowling Green and Wisconsin.
So with Ohio State built to stop the run and Allen lacking for the ability to rip off big plays, while sharing a backfield with Singleton, crossing this rushing total doesn’t look like it will be easy.
Prop bet #3: Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 receiving yards
Even with this game set up to be a defensive struggle, I can’t imagine Jeremiah Smith having a quiet game. The true freshman is already one of the best receivers in the entire country and no team has really been able to slow him down.
Smith has had 70-plus receiving yards in every game this season. That includes going for 100 against Oregon. He’s averaging 89 per game and routinely makes impossible catches look like they’re layups.
So while Penn State’s defense is top-notch, this secondary isn’t going to be able to shut down Smith. Against Wisconsin and USC, the Nittany Lions had some trouble against their go-to receivers.
Will Pauling put up 79 yards and Makai Lemon had 73, and neither of them is in the same stratosphere as Smith. In fact, the most talented pass catcher Penn State has faced this season is Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr., and he went for 137 yards on 11 receptions.
Despite Fannin being a tight end, he’s a comparable talent to Smith simply because they’re both dominant players. While Fannin is second in the country in yards per route run (3.91), Smith isn’t far behind at sixth (3.48).
Plus, Howard has a 148.1 NFL QB rating when targeting Smith, so you know he’ll want to look the freshman way in high leverage situations.
Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly knows what kind of game-changer he has in Smith, so expect him to see enough targets to cruise past this total.
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