BYU vs SMU Player Props & Best Bets: Keep Noses to the Grindstone

Prop bet #1: Brashard Smith 2+ touchdowns

+425 at BetMGM

Sure, you can play this more conservatively and take Smith to score an anytime touchdown at -135. All this logic applies to that bet, too, and it is obviously a safer thought.

But there is so much reason to believe in Miami transfer running back Brashard Smith to make the argument that he will score multiple times, and not just because he reached the end zone twice last week against Houston Christian.

Smith was brought in expecting to be the speed addition to the Mustangs backfield. He has been, taking nine carries for 108 yards last week. But the more notable piece of SMU’s 59-7 win against Houston Christian was the overall run/pass split. The Mustangs ran the ball 53 times for 370 yards — a 7.0 yards per carry average — while throwing just 23 times.

Instinct might worry that was because of the opponent. The lopsided nature of it might have been. But also, SMU has struggled throwing the ball through two games. Preston Stone has not fully looked himself after breaking his leg at the end of last season, leading to more time for dual-threat quarterback Kevin Jennings and a more rush-focused offense.

And Smith is the piece of that focus that can break loose the most.

Prop bet #2: Jake Bailey Under 44.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

Fading senior receiver Jake Bailey is further recognition of SMU’s rush offense and its likelihood of exploding against BYU. Focus on the Cougars’ defense for a moment. It was gashed in Big 12 play last season and has tried to construct a defensive line with junior college transfers. That is not a winning approach.

Against a defense returning half its secondary, the better move may be to wear on the front seven. And BYU’s defense is susceptible to that wear, generally limiting explosive runs but instead getting beat down for chunks of yards at a time over a drive.

That reality will discourage Jennings or Stone from throwing too often.

Bailey did not catch a pass in the season opener against Nevada, and grabbing four for 59 yards last week was buoyed by a 28-yard reception. To clear this prop, he likely needs to catch at least four passes again. And there is little guarantee the Mustangs drop back often enough that any downfield target will see four passes their way.

Prop bet #3: Hinckley Ropati Under 40.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Frankly, just doubt BYU in the trenches against quality opponents. SMU beefed up its line play with Power Four transfers this offseason as it readied for the upgrade in competition in the ACC. The Cougars did not do that before jumping to the Big 12, and that worry still plagues them.

BYU left spring practices hoping to find more offensive line help in the transfer portal. Spoiler alert: There is never offensive line help in the transfer portal for a program like BYU, let alone in the lessened spring window.

This was a wretched rushing attack last season. It is not about to improve, certainly not against a Mustangs defense that limited opposing rushing success. It was sometimes vulnerable to big plays but generally staunch up front.

Hinckley Ropati took 13 carries for 57 yards last week against Southern Illinois. That kind of plodding success will be lessened against a Power Four defense. Yes, you heard that right. We’re describing SMU as a Power Four defense. It is.

BYU is more likely to cross its fingers with its passing game than run nowhere over and over again, to Ropati’s statistical chagrin.