BYU vs South Florida Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulls Can't Run With Cougars

Last weekend was a nice appetizer for the 2022-23 college football season, but the main course kicks off this weekend. One of the dishes in the main course is a budding non-conference rivalry, as the BYU Cougars and South Florida Bulls will meet up for the third time in four seasons on Saturday afternoon.

With these two teams coming off vastly different 2021 seasons, it’s not a surprise that the line here is almost two touchdowns. However, can South Florida keep this game close at home with some new faces?

Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for BYU vs. South Florida on Saturday, September 3. 

BYU vs South Florida odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

BYU opened this non-conference matchup as 12-point favorites at most books. The line originally moved to 12.5 before ducking down to as low as 11.5 in some places, as South Florida seems to be getting more of the recent money. The total opened at 57.5 and has moved towards the Over at a new line as high as 58.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

BYU vs South Florida predictions

• Prediction: BYU -11.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 58 (-110)
• Best bet: BYU -11.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 8/31/2022 at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

BYU vs South Florida game info

• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPNU

BYU vs South Florida betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

BYU: Gunner Romney WR (Questionable), Puka Nacua WR (Questionable).
South Florida: Kelly Joiner RB (Out).
Find our latest College football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in the last nine home games for South Florida. Find more NCAA betting trends for BYU vs. South Florida.

BYU vs South Florida picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

There are some unknowns entering this season for how South Florida will look with so many new faces from the transfer portal, but there is little-to-no question from the BYU side. The Cougars are returning their starting quarterback, three of the top four pass catchers, four of the five starting offensive linemen, and 14 of the Top 15 tacklers from last season’s roster. 

The lone key loss from the BYU offense — one that ranked 29th in the nation in points per game last season — was running back Tyler Allgeier, now in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons. However, they replaced this star with a veteran running back transfer from Cal, Christopher Brooks. Last season, Brooks averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per catch with 7 total touchdowns. 

Meanwhile, South Florida has a new quarterback, Gerry Bohanon, who transferred in from Baylor. Last season, Bohanon passed for 2,200 yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also ran for 323 yards and added nine touchdowns with his feet. The Bulls are also expected to start three incoming transfers on defense, none of which played significant time at their previous schools.

One of the key factors to watch will be the health of star returning wide receivers for BYU, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Each went over 100 yards receiving and they combined for a touchdown in last year’s matchup with South Florida. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake said the reason for their absence from much of practice was “injury prevention.” Hopefully, this is a sign that they will be ready to go come Saturday when they are needed. 

While last year’s matchup at BYU resulted in only an 8-point victory for the Cougars, star quarterback Jaren Hall did not play in that game. Combining a healthy offense with loads of experience, BYU should have no problem dissecting an extremely inexperienced South Florida defense that ranked 117th in the country in points allowed per game last season. 

In addition, the BYU defense got to see Bohanon last year in a matchup with Baylor and was able to hold him to under 250 passing yards, including picking him off once. This should be an easy cover here for BYU, despite being on the road. 

Prediction: BYU -11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Since BYU should have no issues putting points on the board, there is no reason not to also like the Over on the total. 

I already mentioned that BYU was ranked 29th in points per game last season and South Florida was ranked 117th in points allowed. Based solely on averages alone, where BYU averaged 33.1 points per game and South Florida allowed 34.7 points per game, it can be expected for BYU to score around 33-35 points. Not to mention, they scored 35 points exactly in last year’s matchup.

This leaves only 24 points needed by South Florida to hit the Over. In home games last season, the Bulls averaged 32.2 points, where Over has hit in eight of their last nine games. The BYU defense, while experienced, still allowed 24.8 points per game last season, including a 25-point performance against South Florida. 

I expect the Cougars to reach 40 in this game and South Florida should be able to reach 20 with their new quarterback. This is a clear Over if last season’s numbers for two relatively similar sides are any indication. 

Prediction: Over 58 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

There is just such a massive disparity here between these two teams. BYU is returning a huge part of its core that went 10-3 last season, while South Florida has a lot of mixed experience and went 2-10 last year. 

BYU ranked 17th in total offense last season, while South Florida ranked 119th in total defense. The Cougars also were well disciplined, as they ranked 21st in penalty yardage and 17th in turnover margin. Meanwhile, the Bulls ranked 92nd in turnover margin. As if the talent discrepancy wasn’t enough, factor in the likelihood that BYU will win the turnover battle as well.

With South Florida at home and rain expected, humidity may play a small factor early on for BYU on defense. But they should be expected to roll on offense and put South Florida away early in the second half. 

Pick: BYU -11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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