Buckle up for the Holy War, as the Utah Utes look to play spoiler when they host the No. 9 BYU Cougars tonight.
These teams are headed in opposite directions — BYU has won eight straight to start the year while Utah has dropped four in a row — but regardless of who wins, my BYU vs. Utah predictions expect plenty of points.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 9. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, with the game airing on ESPN.
BYU vs Utah prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 40.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The books have set this total so low for a reason — the Utah Utes have sputtered offensively and thrived defensively, going 1-6-1 O/U. That said, it’s low enough to buy back on the Over as the BYU Cougars have been a through-and-through Over team all year at 6-2 O/U.
The Cougars have been moving and grooving offensively, averaging 410 total yards per game on 6.3 yards per play. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been a revelation, throwing for 1,872 yards and 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
BYU’s offense has been very effective (28th in EPA per play, 20th in success rate), and the running game has really gotten going since LJ Martin’s return to health. It’s hard to see a motivated team playing like a well-oiled machine getting shut down completely, especially with the College Football Playoff in sight.
On the flip side, Utah looks to kickstart its offense with the anticipated move to Brandon Rose at quarterback. The veteran can’t be much worse than true freshman Isaac Wilson (6.8 yards per attempt, 8:8 TD:INT ratio), and the ground game should find room against a BYU defense struggling (107th in EPA per rush, 89th in rushing success rate, 107th in rushing explosiveness).
This offense has experienced plenty of turmoil with coordinator Andy Ludwig’s ousting and quarterback Cameron Rising’s latest injury. It makes total sense the Utes have struggled on that side of the ball to date, but it’d also check out if they improved after the bye week.
BYU head coach Jay Hill has done a great job turning around the defense, but it’s still a unit allowing 6.4 and 6.8 yards per play in its last two games. Utah’s offensive line should hold an advantage over BYU’s defensive front (92nd in line yards, 98th in stuff rate, 108th in front-seven havoc), providing a layer of comfort.
It feels ugly, but this is a low enough number to get me to bite with confidence.
BYU vs Utah same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 40.5
Micah Bernard anytime touchdown
BYU -2.5
If the Utes are going to find offensive success in this contest, they’ll need to feature a healthy dose of team captain and production leader Micah Bernard. The senior running back leads the team in scrimmage yards (877) by a wide margin and has found the end zone four times this season — providing a semblance of stability during a rocky season.
Recently, BYU has allowed 269 and 181 rushing yards in its last two games against Oklahoma State and Central Florida. Different stylistic matchups for sure, but how about the 228 rushing yards allowed to Kansas State or the 123 rushing yards and two rushing scores surrendered to an FCS team (Southern Illinois)?
While I’m betting on Bernard getting his, the overall handicap trends toward BYU. The only reason this line is so close — and has come in since the opener of -5 — is because Utah is playing at home in November in a cold game, an environment strongly trending toward the Utes in recent years.
Sure, but this Utah team is floundering and has already had its dreams crushed this season. The Cougars have everything right in front of them and have vastly outperformed the Utes this year, so I expect BYU to even this rivalry a little bit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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BYU vs Utah odds
BYU vs Utah live odds
BYU vs Utah opening odds
- BYU vs. Utah spread: Utah +3.5
- BYU vs. Utah moneyline: BYU -190, Utah +155
- BYU vs. Utah Over/Under: 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
BYU vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis
- Utah is 120-39 at Rice-Eccles under Kyle Whittingham. The Utes typically excel in November, winning nine of their last 12 games taking place in the month.
- Utah has covered the spread just three times in its last 12 games.
- BYU is 9-3 O/U in its last 12 games played in November.
- 69% of users at Covers Consensus are backing BYU at -3, while 64% are taking the Over.
BYU vs Utah betting trend to know
BYU is 5-1 O/U in its last six road games. Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs Utah.
BYU vs Utah game info
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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