The California Golden Bears (3-6) make the short trip to Palo Alto to battle the Stanford Cardinal (3-7) in Pac-12 action.
Stanford has dominated this rivalry in recent memory, winning 10 of the last 11 games. However, the Cardinal are on a slide in 2021, losing five games in a row while failing to cover the spread in each of those defeats.
Will California be able to regain The Axe on the road, or will Stanford retain?
Check out our picks and predictions for the California Golden Bears vs. the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday, November 20 to find out.
California vs Stanford odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
California opened -3.5 across most books but has been bet down to -1.5. The total has gone from 43.5 to 45.5 at the time of this writing. Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
California vs Stanford predictions
Predictions made on 11/19/2021 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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California vs Stanford game info
• Location: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Pac-12 Network
California vs Stanford betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
California: Chase Garbers QB (Questionable), Will Craig OL (Out), McKade Mettauer OL (Out), Nikko Remigio WR (Questionable)
Stanford: Tanner McKee QB (Probable), Ari Patu QB (Out), E.J. Smith RB (Questionable), Casey Filkins RB (Out), Elijah Higgins WR (Questionable), Brycen Tremayne WR (Out), Tucker Fisk TE (Probable), Tristan Sinclair LB (Questionable), Ricky Miezan LB (Probable), Stephen Herron LB (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Stanford is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs Stanford. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs. Stanford.
California vs Stanford picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Stanford has been miserable lately, losing five straight and five of its last six games. The Cardinal haven’t been covering the spread either, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games while failing to cover the spread by more than a touchdown in three straight tries.
California had to postpone last week’s game with USC due to a COVID outbreak in the program. The Bears are expected to be near full strength for this game, and can still technically reach bowl eligibility if they win out over their last three games against in-state rivals.
When both teams are at full strength — as they should be close to for this contest — the Bears have been the better team. They’ve slightly outgained teams on the season (5.8 yards per play offensively, 5.5 defensively) while the Cardinal have been routinely outgained all year (5.4 yards per play offensively, 6.2 defensively).
Don’t be fooled by California’s 10-3 defeat to lowly Arizona last time out — the Bears were forced to play with only 42 scholarship players due to COVID protocol. Can we really factor that game into our handicapping when Cal was missing its starting quarterback, three offensive linemen, three defensive starters, and four assistant coaches?
Stanford has fallen precipitously as a team and as a program. That’s most evident in the rushing defense, which has allowed nearly 900 yards on the ground in its last three games. The Bears should be able to move the ball effectively through the rushing attack and take care of the football — the same game plan they used in a 39-25 defeat of Oregon State in late October.
Prediction: California -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
This total has taken some money to the Over, moving from 43.5 to 45.5. We believe that money is on the correct side of this total, which was artificially depressed after both teams were forced to play with backup quarterbacks recently. A quick glance at recent box scores will tell you that these offenses have been struggling recently, but that doesn’t paint the full picture — Stanford has been without starting quarterback Tanner McKee, while Cal was decimated by COVID protocols against Arizona.
McKee is expected back for this contest. He’s an integral part of this offense, which will look much improved in his return. The Bears should be able to exploit a Cardinal defense ranked 127th defending the rush, allowing 233 yards per game.
Both teams should move the ball, and the point total is low enough to play the Over.
Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)
Best bet
This simply isn’t a Stanford team that we can consider backing at this point. The Cardinal have lost five straight against the spread and are a play-against team until they prove otherwise.
The Bears will be fired up to notch a victory over a downed rival. Don’t be scared that they’re on the road — the away team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools.
Pick: California -1.5 (-110)
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