California vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Golden Bears Given Too Many Points

Justin Wilcox’s California Golden Bears have lost four straight games, and the going doesn’t get any easier in Week 10 with a trip to Southern California awaiting.

The USC Trojans are flourishing in Year 1 under Lincoln Riley, checking in at No. 9 in the first College Football Playoff rankings released earlier this week.

Will this matchup be as lopsided as the betting market seems to think it will be? Read our college football picks and predictions for Cal vs. USC below to find out. 

California vs USC best odds

California vs USC picks and predictions

A year after faltering to an embarrassing 4-8 record, the USC Trojans have found new life under Lincoln Riley. At 7-1 with their lone loss coming by a single point at Utah, they still have hopes of capturing the conference title and making noise nationally. First, they need to take care of business against a California team that has lost four straight games, all against Pac-12 opposition. 

There’s a reason the Trojans are large favorites in this contest. They have the ninth-best scoring offense in the country at 41 points per game and are led by star quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for a career-best 411 passing yards and five touchdowns in his last game against Arizona.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about his performance against the Wildcats is that he put up those insane numbers without the help of his two star receivers, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams. Both were out with injury and their status for Week 10 is uncertain.

Although the final score (42-24) may not be a great indicator, the Golden Bears played a fine game against Oregon a week ago — for one half, at least. Cal held a 10-7 lead with 13:08 to play in the second quarter but ultimately surrendered 28 consecutive points to lose the game going away.

Both Jack Plummer and Kai Millner saw time at quarterback, adding some controversy over who will start and see the majority of snaps this week against USC. Millner completed 8 of 11 passes for 114 yards (10.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns, making a strong case for more playing time.

Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball against a USC defense that ranks 119th in success rate allowed (excluding garbage time). The Trojans may have a great offense, but the defense is simply not up to par. They rank 120th in standard down success rate, so California should be able to stay ahead of the chains and avoid an utter blowout.

USC’s rush defense has been the primary culprit of a leaky defense, as the Trojans rank 128th in expected points added (EPA), 127th in success rate, and 116th in explosiveness against the run.

I can’t lay a spread this big in conference play when the favorite has so many holes defensively. Therefore, give me the points with Cal.

My best bet: California +21.5 (-110 at bet365)

California vs USC spread analysis

The betting market has steamed this line after it opened at -19.5 in USC’s favor, quickly moving to -21 or -21.5 depending on the book.

The betting market is a believer in USC, which is 4-1 ATS in its last five homes. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two schools, and the early money in support of the Trojans seems to indicate that there is confidence in them to keep that trend alive. 

While you won’t find any arguments from me that USC should be favored by more than two touchdowns, the line simply seems too wide at this point, as it is clearing three touchdowns and includes a hook. California may be on a losing streak, but they’ve lost by one score in three of their five losses this season and have mostly managed to keep things close. 

California has thrived in the underdog role under Wilcox, going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Golden Bears have been a great bet coming off a loss, going 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine such games. 

Only twice in the last three seasons have the Golden Bears lost a game by more than 21 points, and both games were against UCLA.

California vs USC Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 58 but quickly took some money and now resides between 60.5 and 61 depending on the book. 

These two offenses have been performing at quite different levels. USC has been a death star offensively to the tune of 41 points per game while accumulating 493.5 yards of total offense, while California is managing just 21.2 points per game and 329 total yards. 

We know the Trojans should score regardless if Addison and Williams are in the lineup. This is a deep receiving room and both Tahj Washington and Kyle Ford stepped up with big games against the Wildcats.

Despite having a reputation as a defensive team, California ranks 120th in success rate allowed and a miserable 129th in standard downs success rate. They have done a good job of limiting big plays, ranking 16th in explosiveness. Riley’s offense may have to be content with moving the chains consistently instead of hunting big plays, something that has caused his offense some frustration in the past.

California’s offense is nothing special — there’s no other way to put it. The good news is that they have found something special in wide receivers J. Michael Sturdivant (516 receiving yards, six touchdowns) and Jeremiah Hunter (514 receiving yards, two TDs in seven games), while the rushing attack could find renewed life against USC’s miserable rush defense. 

If both teams find success running the ball, the clock may keep ticking in this contest. It’s a scary proposition in any USC game, but the Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams. 

California vs USC betting trend to know

USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against a team with a losing record. Find more NCAA betting trends for California vs. USC.

California vs USC game info

California vs USC latest injuries

California vs USC weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic