Week 5 of the college football season rolls on with four more matchups on the board for Friday night, including an intriguing Big Ten battle between Penn State and Maryland where third down will be the key to who covers, and an always exciting "Pac-12 After Dark" showdown between Arizona State and Cal where defense will be center stage. **video
We’re not only looking at pointspread picks and Over/Under predictions for today's games, but we dive into derivatives, team and player props, and more with our best bets for this week’s college football action.
BATTLE OF THE BUTTERFINGERS
Two of the ACC's sloppiest teams will face off Friday at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg as Virginia Tech hosts Duke. The visiting Blue Devils are modest underdogs in this one despite back-to-back victories; they come in having turned the ball over five times in three games with a -2 turnover margin to date. The Hokies have been even worse in that category: They've lost the ball nine times already in 2019, while their -6 turnover differential ranks third-last in the entire FBS. The teams combined for three turnovers (two lost fumbles, one interception) in last year's 31-14 Virginia Tech triumph.
We don't usually recommend taking the Yes on the special teams or defensive touchdown scored, but this game might be just too tempting to resist. Bettors should consider that prop, which pays out at +162.
THIRD AND WRONG
The Penn State Nittany Lions have struggled in a key area of their offense this season – and while it hasn't hurt them so far, it could be a problem Friday as they tangle with the host Maryland Terrapins. The Nittany Lions enter Week 5 having gone just 7-for-30 on third downs; that 23.3-percent success rate is better than just two other FBS teams. Last week's 5-for-16 showing against rival Pitt nearly came back to bite Penn State, which won 17-10 but fell well short of a cover as a 17-point home fave. And it just so happens that Maryland has the No. 6 third-down defense in the nation at 23.9 percent.
Maryland comes in as a 6.5-point home underdog but has gone 6-1 ATS in its past seven home games – and with such a huge advantage on Penn State third-down situations, we're favoring the hosts to cover here.
MAKING THE MOST OF IT
The San Jose State Spartans know what to expect as they take on the Air Force Falcons in a Friday night showdown. The Falcons average a whopping 56 carries per game – third only to Army and Navy, of course – while they rank fourth in rushing yards per game and 16th in average time of possession. But if any team is equipped to do more with less time, it's the Spartans, who rank 31st in passing yards per game and have 117 pass attempts compared to just 88 rush attempts. They're ranked among the top ten teams in the country in terms of pass play percentage.
While SJSU might not slow down the Falcons, it should be able to make gains through the air when it has the ball. And with the Spartans coming in as 19-point underdogs, they'll need to throw a LOT. We're taking the Over on their team total.
ARIZONA STATE’S UN-MAGIC NUMBER
Keep the number 11 in mind as you read this breakdown of Friday's "Pac-12 After Dark" encounter between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the host California Golden Bears. The Sun Devils have already allowed 11 sacks through their first four games of the season after surrendering just 16 sacks all of last season. And those offensive line struggles play right into California's hands, with the Golden Bears having racked up 11 sacks of their own through four games (ranking just outside the top-30 in that category). And while Cal has been sacked 14 times, Arizona State has just seven sacks of its own so far.
Combine Cal's impressive QB pressure with the fact that the secondary has allowed just two touchdown passes through four games, and a Golden Bears cover looks like the superior option in this one.
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