The Central Michigan Chippewas will look to earn bowl eligibility tonight as they visit the Ohio Bobcats for another dose of midweek MAC competition.
Central Michigan has traditionally dominated the matchup with Ohio. However, college football odds have the Bobcats listed as a significant favorite heading into the regular season finale.
The Chippewas will have to spring a major upset if they want to get another win over the Bobcats in this longstanding rivalry. We’ll break down their chances in our free college football picks for Central Michigan vs. Ohio on November 15.
Central Michigan vs Ohio best odds
Central Michigan vs Ohio picks and predictions
To say that the Central Michigan Chippewas have historically owned the Ohio Bobcats would almost be an understatement. The Chippewas have won the last six meetings between these teams, and hold a 27-5-2 all-time advantage against the Bobcats.
However, these two teams haven’t met in over two years, and their fortunes have changed since then. Ohio enjoyed one of their best seasons in school history last year, finishing 10-4 with a win in the Arizona Bowl. Head coach Tim Albin has quickly restored the program to the standing it has enjoyed throughout most of the past 15 years: a solid, top-tier MAC representative that annually ends up in a bowl game and has the potential to occasionally pull off an upset against Power Five competition.
The last time these two schools clashed, Central Michigan was having its own renaissance, part of a 9-4 season that gave the Chippewas their most wins in a season since 2009. Since then, Jim McElwain’s squad has gone just 9-13 overall, and now needs a win against Ohio or the Toledo Rockets – an even taller task – to become bowl-eligible this season.
It shouldn’t take a look at any advanced statistics to know that Ohio should win this game at home. That said, it’s an open question as to how big a win this will be for the Bobcats.
Ohio is scoring just 21.6 points per game on the season. The Bobcats rank outside the top 100 in the nation in yards per play and yards per rush; they only barely crack that barrier in the passing game, as their 6.7 yards per attempt ranks 96th through the air.
On the other hand, Ohio has been dynamite on defense. Only two opponents have been able to score over 20 points against the Bobcats this year, as they are allowing an average of 15.1 points per game. Ohio has been strong against the pass and even better against the run, giving up just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt.
That lines up well against the Chippewas, who have found the majority of their offensive success on the ground. While the passing game has struggled to find any consistency and avoid turnovers, Central Michigan has enjoyed success on the ground behind running back Marion Lukes, who has run for over 600 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Quarterback Jase Bauer has also been better on his feet, running for nine touchdowns – the same number he has thrown for this season.
As I’ve said, this is a game Ohio should win, but it’s hard to see them running away with it. Neither team is going to put up points in bunches, and ultimately, this should be a game that the Bobcats win by controlling the action rather than moving up and down the field at will. I’m taking the Under on Wednesday night.
My best bet: Under 46.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Central Michigan vs Ohio same-game parlay
Under 46.5 points
Central Michigan +10.5
Sieh Bangura Under 74.5 rushing yards
I’m expecting a low-scoring game without a whole lot of offense on Wednesday, and that has influenced how I’m building a same-game parlay for this contest. We’ll start by taking the Under, then combine that with a bet on Central Michigan to cover the spread.
I don’t love this Chippewas team, but they’ve generally kept things close all year long, and Ohio doesn’t have the offense to blow them out. And while I usually avoid looking at long-term historical trends, it’s hard to forget that the Bobcats are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings of these teams. I expect Central Michigan to show enough pride to stay close in a low-scoring game.
Finally, let’s take the Under on Ohio running back Sieh Bangura’s rushing prop. Bangura has only run for 75 yards or more in two of his last eight games, and the Chippewas are far better against the run than the pass. I expect Ohio to focus on the passing game in this one, relegating Bangura to a supporting role – though he’s still likely to snag a short-yardage touchdown at some point.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Central Michigan vs Ohio spread and Over/Under analysis
Ohio opened as an 8.5-point favorite over Central Michigan. That number has shifted significantly towards the Bobcats, as Ohio -10.5 is now the most common line you’ll find at books as of Tuesday afternoon. Some sites have even moved to -11 in this matchup.
Ohio has been average against the spread this year, posting a 5-5 ATS record. Central Michigan hasn’t met expectations for bettors, putting up a 3-7 ATS mark on the season.
While the Bobcats are the clear favorite here, I’m concerned about the spread moving above the key number of 10 points. The Chippewas should be able to stay in this game for a while, and Ohio doesn’t have the kind of offense that’s likely to blow this one open at any point. I’m leaning towards Central Michigan, provided we can get at least 10.5 points.
The total on Wednesday’s game opened at a flat 46 points. There hasn’t been much movement, though books are now split between 46 and 46.5 when it comes to setting the primary Over/Under. The sites that have moved to 46.5 are showing a little lean towards the Under, as you can find -105 on the Over at that total.
Ohio has struggled to score points all season long, and the Under has gone 8-2 when the Bobcats play. The Chippewas don’t hold as strong a bias against the total, with the Over holding a 6-4 edge in Central Michigan games this season.
I’ve made the Under my best bet for this game. Ohio has such a good defense that it’s hard to see Central Michigan accomplishing much with the ball. On the other hand, the Bobcats have also struggled on offense all season long, and haven’t scored more than 20 points in any of their past four games. With a reasonable total that doesn’t require a bizarrely low score – this isn’t an Iowa Hawkeyes game, after all – I’m taking the Under.
Central Michigan vs Ohio betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between Central Michigan and Ohio. Find more college football betting trends for Central Michigan vs Ohio.
Central Michigan vs Ohio game info
| Location: | Peden Stadium, Athens, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
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