CFP National Championship Odds Analysis: Buckeyes -9.5-Point Favorites

The CFP National Championship opening odds have been released and it's the Ohio State Buckeyes who are favorites and taking the early money.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Jan 10, 2025 • 23:49 ET • 4 min read
Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) celebrates after a touchdown with quarterback Will Howard (18)
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins (1) celebrates after a touchdown with quarterback Will Howard (18)

Two of college football’s biggest powerhouses will vie for the national championship, as Ohio State and Notre Dame meet on January 20 to decide the winner of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.

Join me as I break down the opening college football national championship odds and discuss how the early money is impacting the college football odds ahead of what should be an epic clash.

CFP National Championship Opening Odds 

  • Ohio State vs Notre Dame moneyline: Ohio State -400 | Notre Dame +300
  • Ohio State vs Notre Dame spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110) | Notre Dame +9.5 (-110)
  • Ohio State vs Notre Dame Over/Under: Over 45 (-110) | Under 45 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of 1/10/25

Ohio State vs Notre Dame opening odds analysis

The oddsmakers wasted no time inserting the Ohio State Buckeyes as a strong favorite. The Buckeyes opened with a moneyline of -400 at BetMGM within seconds of the final whistle. The spread opened with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish set as 9.5-point underdogs, the largest spread for either team so far in these playoffs. As for the total, it opened at 45.5 points.

Early money has been coming in on Ohio State to cover the spread, as we quickly saw the vig jump from -110 to -115. We’ve also seen movement on the moneyline, with the Buckeyes shifting to -350 and the Irish moving to +280. However, there was no noticeable early movement with the total. 

Notre Dame won its first two games of the playoffs, covering both times as favorites, before winning as a one-point underdog to Penn State. As for the Buckeyes, they were favored in all three of their playoff games, easily covering the spread in each as they won by at least 14 points in all three games. 

The total opened at basically the same number as Notre Dame’s last two games against Georgia and Penn State. That said, the 45.5 represents the lowest total of Ohio State’s playoff run. It also comes after the Buckeyes were involved in their first game of fewer than 60 points in their three playoff contests, which also saw their first Under of the tournament. 

This College Football Playoff national championship will be an intriguing matchup, with Notre Dame’s stingy secondary squaring off against an Ohio State receiving corps loaded with future NFL talent. You also have two head coaches with numerous storylines surrounding them and a pair of rabid fan bases who haven’t tasted a title in some time.

Combine those factors and we should see some interesting line movement over the next day or two.

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Jason Ence - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jason has been hooked on soccer since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.

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