Cincinnati vs UCF Odds, Picks and Predictions: Knights Pick Up Massive Win

The AAC remains up for grabs, with both the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Central Florida Golden Knights still in contention. If you have a conference future on either, it is easy to sit out this 1.5-point spread and rely on that preseason bet.

If you have a conference future on anyone else in the AAC, the conference race is still too tight to know which you want to lose. In that case, perhaps trusting the rowdy atmosphere in Orlando as the best choice. 

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Central Florida on October 29.

Cincinnati vs UCF best odds

Cincinnati vs UCF picks and predictions

This is not entirely just listening to Brad Powers and following his lead. There would be worse approaches to a handicap, but something that simple would not lead to the following few hundred words.

Rather, Central Florida is simply the better team these days, as hard as that may be to believe only 10 months removed from Cincinnati’s playoff appearance.

Start with raw talent. Per the 247 Sports team talent composite, the Knights roster ranks No. 35 in the country in terms of sheer talent, led by two former five-star recruits and 11 four-stars. The Bearcats come in at No. 50, with no former five-star prospects and 11 four-stars.

Look at their momentary narratives. Central Florida is coming off a worse-than-it-looked loss to East Carolina, undone by a negative-four turnover differential. That kind of bad luck should not be assumed moving forward, but it should provide a renewed focus this week, if one was somehow needed.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, nearly coughed up a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead last week against SMU. The Mustangs scored two touchdowns in the final 5:09, falling short only by a missed two-point conversion. And that came in the game after the Bearcats needed to come from behind to beat woeful South Florida, trailing both at halftime and four seconds into the fourth quarter.

From a distance, it seems Cincinnati is nowhere near the playoff team a year ago. The falloff was always expected, but this month has made it clear, the Bearcats are a good ways away from that team that included nine NFL draft picks.

That may be the issue with this spread. At home, in front of 45,000 fans, Central Florida should be favored by more than a mere 1.5 points, yet some deference to Cincinnati from a year ago keeps this spread deflated.

The difference in price between that -1.5 and the Knights outright is only 10 cents, small enough to justify taking Central Florida on the money line to protect against whatever late-game chaos may unfold, not to mention overtime worries given the new rules this season better the chances of a one-point margin (or, more genuinely, a two-point margin, if this line has moved back to -2).

My best bet: Central Florida moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

Cincinnati vs UCF spread analysis

Looking at the board early Friday morning, a shopper should be able to find Central Florida at -1.5, but if limited to -2.0 as your option, let’s dig a bit further into that overtime worry.

As of this season, teams are required to go for two after a touchdown in a second overtime. If still tied following a second overtime, the game devolves into a two-point attempt shootout.

That second overtime wrinkle measurably increases the chances of a game ending with a two-point margin, not a key number previously but maybe one that should be considered moving forward. The math probably needs more than half a season to confirm that, but the logic holds up. From 2007 to 2020, 1.6% of FBS vs. FBS games reached at least two overtimes.

They are not all that rare. Double-overtime games happen regularly enough that any spread within the twos should now be approached as a possible moneyline moment. This comes into consideration before overtime, too. Given the extra periods more and more resemble a game of chance, coaches are more likely to go for the win in regulation.

If considering Central Florida at -1.5 or more particularly -2.0, the price of the money line may be worth it simply not to worry about what Gus Malzahn may choose to do in the final minutes if given the options of overtime or going for the win.

Cincinnati vs UCF Over/Under analysis

The Malzahn Era in Orlando got off to an aggressive, entertaining start. Central Florida went only 2-2 in its first four games under the former Auburn head coach, but all four of those games hit the Over. Then the 2021 season slowed down for the Knights, with only four of their remaining nine games cashing the Over.

That trend has continued into 2022, as the total has went Over only twice in Central Florida’s seven games.

Malzahn has slowed things down, something that Cincinnati will presumably allow. The Bearcats ran up the score against Miami (OH) and Indiana, but otherwise, FBS opponents have held Cincinnati to 28 points per game. When you cannot score readily against South Florida, it is hard to imagine doing so with ease against Central Florida.

Thus, a total of 55.5 makes sense. These two teams should trade their way into the mid-to-upper 20s. But if granting that previous overtime precaution any credence, then the Over may make sense here, simply playing those odds.

Cincinnati vs UCF betting trend to know

Central Florida is 3-2 ATS at home this season, beating the bookmakers’ numbers by a net of 39.5 points. Find more NCAA betting trends for Cincinnati vs. UCF.

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