Despite not playing in the same conference, nor holding any long-running non-conference series, the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide have a classic college football rivalry brewing. These high-power programs meet in the CFP Playoffs for the fourth straight season, and play for the CFP National Championship for the third time in those four years.
Oddsmakers opened Alabama as a 6.5-point favorite for Monday’s matchup with Clemson in Atlanta, and money on the Tigers has dropped this pointspread as low as Bama -4.5. It would seem plenty of the college football betting action likes Clemson’s chances of keeping this game close – especially after covering as underdogs in the previous two national title meetings with the Crimson Tide. **video
If you’re on the fence about who to bet in the CFP Championship betting odds, here are three reasons to side with the underdog Tigers Monday night.
Reason No. 1: No Fear
Big bad Alabama has a psychological edge over most opponents before the whistle even blows. The program’s storied history, talent-rich roster, and imposing head coach Nick Saban can weaken the knees of just about any opponent. Except for Clemson.
This is the fourth straight year Clemson has taken on the Tide, and if anyone knows how to tame an elephant, it’s Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers covered as underdogs of similar size in both national title appearance – defeating Alabama for the championship in 2017 – and even have a measure of revenge sprinkled into this contest after getting rolled 24-6 by Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl CFP semifinal.
The Tigers enter Monday’s matchup undefeated with an average margin of victory of more than 31 points per game. Clemson has covered in eight of its 14 games, including a 7-2 ATS run in its last nine games. If anything, the Tigers look more like an “Alabama” team than the Tide do at this point – even more so after locking down Notre Dame during a 30-3 victory in the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Reason No. 2: Dominant Defense
In a reversal of roles, compared to the past three meetings between these teams, Clemson enters this clash with Alabama as the dominant defense. The Tigers topped the college ranks in terms of points allowed per game, at just 12.9, and budged for just under 281 yards against an outing.
Some would argue that Alabama’s stop unit is superior – having played a tough slate of opponents in the SEC – but the Tide have shown cracks in their last three games against top-tier competition, most notably allowing 24 second-half points to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
Clemson has gotten better as the season has trekked on, holding seven of its last nine foes to 10 points or less. The Tigers have an incredible blend of size, speed and athleticism – especially in the front seven – which matches up well against an up-tempo Alabama offense, allowing them to close in on runners and limit yards after contact and after the catch.
That will be key to shutting down Alabama and getting them off the field on third downs. The Crimson Tide are among the top offenses in keeping the chains moving, picking up the first almost 54 percent of the time on third down. However, the Tigers allow opponents to convert on third down at just under a 28 percent clip and will bring the heat on third down blitz opportunities, boasting a pass rush that recorded 52 sacks on the season – No. 1 in the country. It had six sacks in the Cotton Bowl blasting of the Fighting Irish.
Reason No. 3: The Future Is Here
"Freshman" used to be a bad word when it came to big games, but as we’ve seen in the past six years and with Tua Tagovailoa’s arrival in last year’s title game, talent is talent. And the Tigers have talent oozing from their roster.
Of course, first-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the first name to come to mind when talking fabulous frosh. Since taking over the top spot, and chasing Kelly Bryant out of Clemson, Lawrence has played beyond his years. The stoic 6-foot-5 blonde bombshell has injected this offense with life, passing for 27 touchdowns and only four interceptions. While he’s key to Clemson covering this spread, it’s not all on his broad shoulders.
Lawrence is supported by a talented (and towering) group of receivers – including fellow freshman standout Justyn Ross, who has emerged as a big weapon with 148 yards versus Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl – as well as a tricky spread option rushing attack, anchored by RB Travis Etienne.
He’s a back-breaker with a nose for the end zone and will decimate this Alabama defense with a handful of big plays Monday night – thanks in large part to one of the best offensive lines in the country. The pass protection is elite and this o-line paves the way with massive gaps in run blocking, setting up 98 plays of 20-plus yards (second most in the country). Clemson is tops in the FBS in plays of 50 or more yards, with 21 and we’ll see at least one of those home runs Monday night.
NOT CONVINCED? OUR ANDREW CALEY HAS 3 REASONS TO BET BIG ON ALABAMA IN THE CFP FINAL!
