Clemson vs Boston College Odds, Picks and Predictions: Finding Value With Overmatched Eagles

The Clemson Tigers take an undefeated record on the road when they visit the Boston College Eagles on Saturday night.

The Tigers come into this one off a 30-20 win against NC State. They controlled the game throughout, although things did get a bit interesting late.

BC arrives off a win as well, albeit one that was much less comfortable as the Eagles defeated Louisville by a single point in a game that saw more than six lead changes.

What's in store for this primetime ACC battle? Probably not a win for the Eagles... but they should score a few points along the way.

Find out more in my free college football picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Boston College.

Clemson vs Boston College best odds

Clemson vs Boston College picks and predictions

I don't think Boston College is a good football team — I think the Clemson Tigers should cover this number — but I also believe there are better ways to attack this game.

It's been a bit of a quiet notion, but the Clemson defense has not been good this season. So I'm going to target that defense with my best bet.

The Tigers have given up the most passing plays of 10+ yards in the ACC. They have given up the most passing plays of 20 yards or more in the ACC. They have — sensing a theme? — also surrendered the second-most passing plays of 30 yards or more in the ACC.

See what I mean?

The question comes more about if Boston College can exploit this shoddy defense because the opportunities will be there to do so. Over the last three weeks, Clemson has allowed three straight opponents to score 20 or more points. Head Coach Dabo Swinney has made multiple comments about them this season, including after they gave up 45 points to Wake Forest, saying, "I was about to go play corner."

They responded by surrendering 4.5 yards per play (and 20 points) to NC State last week, which has sowed more doubts that the problems are fixable.

So: Can Boston College drop 14 points on the Clemson defense? In a word, yes... at least enough to cash this bet.

The Eagles have one of the best wide receivers in All-ACC Zay Flowers. He's been as good as advertised this season and is coming off one of his best games against Louisville, finishing with five receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns.

Clemson has seen its young corners get continuously picked on this year — particularly against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons routinely exploited matchups en route to 337 yards of offense. I'm sensing a similar theme could play out in this one, so I'm also looking at Flowers props and perhaps the props of 6-foot-6 tight end George Takacs if available.

As far as quarterback play for the Eagles? Like most things, it's good enough for us to cash here. Phil Jurkovec has his issues, but he can make some big plays — Boston College has five passing plays over 50 yards this season, the most in the conference and one of the top numbers in the country.

In many ways, this is simple: Clemson gives up big plays through the air, and Boston College creates big plays through the air. Back the Eagles to go Over two touchdowns.

My best bet: Boston College Team Total Over 13.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Clemson vs Boston College spread analysis

Boston College doesn't have enough horses to keep this one close. I'd take Clemson to cover, but I still think a better number can be had while betting in-game.

Boston College will score enough to go Over its points total and a big part of that will be because of Flowers. He's an exceptional talent that's hard to slow down. However, I think Boston College gets them for a few big plays early... but Clemson adjusts to coast to a victory.

This is an average Boston College team. It grades out as average in most statistics except explosiveness. What stands out here is that the Eagles produce the second-fewest line yards in the ACC — which essentially measures an offensive or defensive line "push" at the point of attack.

Unfortunately for Boston College, Clemson ranks first in the ACC on both sides of the ball. As a result, they'll dominate the line of scrimmage throughout the game.

Clemson vs Boston College Over/Under analysis

I expect this one to go Over, and I will be playing it. But let's mention a few trends before we dive into an analysis:

1) the Over is 5-1 in Clemson's last six conference games.
2) Clemson has given up 20 points or more in three straight games.
3) Boston College has given up 30 points or more in three straight games.

I'm not sure either of these defenses is very good overall, even though one will be overmatched at the line of scrimmage. I've already talked about why I expect big plays to assist Boston College in scoring at least two touchdowns. For Clemson, it's simply about protecting QB DJ Uiagelelei and allowing the Tigers' superior talent and athleticism to take over.

They should be able to do that, as Boston College has the fewest sacks in the ACC. I expect big days from guys like RB Will Shipley and WR Joseph Ngata, who should be a matchup issue for Boston College because of his 6-foot-3 frame.

Clemson scored easily against the best defense in the ACC a week ago. It shouldn't have issues scoring here and will do enough to get this one Over.

Clemson vs Boston College betting trend to know

The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Clemson vs. Boston College.

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