Coastal Carolina vs Troy Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chanticleers Pose a Threat in Sun Belt Championship

The first week of December football means it's Championship Weekend. The Sun Belt Championship brings us Coastal Carolina facing off with Troy.

Few teams in college football have been hotter than Troy. The Trojans have won nine straight games and haven't lost since September, when they dropped one to Appalachian State. They come into this matchup off the strength of a blowout win against Arkansas State. That win marked the second-straight game that the Trojans scored over 30 points.

Troy's opponent has been a bit more hit-or-miss. The Chanticleers started hot with six straight wins, five of which included scoring over 30 points. They finished the season with a blimp, dropping two of their last four, including the last one to James Madison in blowout fashion.

Find out which team will prevail on Saturday in our free college football picks and predictions for Coastal Carolina vs. Troy on December 3.

Coastal Carolina vs Troy best odds

Coastal Carolina vs Troy picks and predictions

Answering if quarterback Grayson McCall is playing in this game is critical to the handicap. Points will have to be scored in bulk to compete, and you should be concerned if Coastal Carolina has to proceed with a backup.

The Sun Belt Player of the Year has missed the last two games with a foot injury, and protecting a potential NFL future looms large. With that said, there is growing optimism around the program that he'll suit up.

If McCall can go, it could become a game of who scores last. In that case, I trust Coastal Carolina's offense more in its respective matchup. While Troy's defense is no slouch, Coastal Carolina has already faced two defenses that rank better in the conference, and it successfully defeated both programs. That leads me to believe it'll find a way to score points against any defense.

What will give the true edge in this matchup is the one that can create more havoc or the big play (tackles for a loss, tipped passes, turnovers, etc.). There's a clear edge for the Chanticleers there. 21% of their defensive plays have been graded as "havoc-creating" this season, while only 12% of the Trojans' have done that.

The second part of this handicap? Let's revisit those matchups against the other high-end defenses that Coastal has faced in Marshall and South Alabama (both Top-3 in the Sun Belt). In neither game was McCall super effective nor impressive. In fact, he didn't even throw for 200 yards in either matchup. However, the threat of his considerable playmaking ability opened up other parts of the game.

Against South Alabama, running back Shermari Jones ran for 211 yards on 21 carries once the defense compensated for McCall's playmaking. I'm taking a chance that McCall plays here because if he does, the +255 money line price is way out of whack.

And if he doesn't, there's still a path for Coastal Carolina to lean on its defense, control the ball and create chunk plays through the air —  even with a backup at center.

My best bet: Coastal Carolina moneyline (+255 at FanDuel)

Coastal Carolina vs Troy spread analysis

The market ticking this one up to Troy - 8.5 was significant as Coastal Carolina is 0-1 against the spread when it's an underdog of 8.5 points or more this season.

This particular situation is unique, however. One of those reasons is the status above McCall. The market is pricing him as though he's not suiting up, yet every verifiable report makes it appear that it's very much a 50/50 situation.

The other unique aspect of this is that it's in Troy's home football stadium, so it's being billed as a home game. However, since it's a conference championship, the ticket allotment for both schools is very different, and we should see a more neutral setting. 

We're rolling with Coastal Carolina on the moneyline. There's a multifaceted line of thinking here. One is that if McCall plays, then we're getting immense value on a market that's banking on him not playing. The other is that Coastal Carolina still has a puncher's chance at grabbing the win without McCall in the fold. 

Coastal Carolina vs Troy Over/Under analysis

The only look here is the Over, but I'll likely stay away. I'm already taking a risk on the moneyline with McCall's status and don't want to do it twice. 

If McCall is indeed out, the whole calculus on the total changes. Not only is a dynamic player off the field, but the approach to the game changes as well. Coastal would likely be much more conservative to keep Troy's offense off the field. It would also be more aggressive with its defensive play calls.

The Chanticleers created havoc in the backfield from time to time this season with pass rushers Adrian Hope and Josiah Stewart. They'd likely be willing to unleash them a little more without McCall, knowing they'll need to force turnovers. 

The only move that would lead me to a play here is a slow start by both teams and McCall playing. If that happens, I'll jump in on the in-game Over at any number south of 43.5.

Coastal Carolina vs Troy betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the last five matchups between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Coastal Carolina vs. Troy.

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