Usually, I wouldn’t promote a perfect week. But there wasn’t one before last week, so I’m going to say it. Is my college football betting picks cold streak finally over? After a 3-0 week, we are starting to climb out of the hole I dug myself in.
So, let’s keep this rolling in hopes of getting closer to turning a profit this season (while there's still a college football season left to bet on), as we look at a pair of juicy Mountain West matchups and a surprising ACC underdog.
The Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 11.
NCAA Football Picks and Predictions for Week 11
Miami Hurricanes vs Virginia Tech Hokies
This game has to be a trap, right? I can’t really explain why Miami is an underdog in this matchup. While the Hurricanes haven’t been able to cover as double-digit favorites each of the last two weeks, they still manage to pull out the victory each time – as long as they’re not playing Clemson.
The U visits a Virginia Tech squad that is 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS), but the Hokies have lost two of their last three games and were 10-point favorites in those two losses. That includes a 38-35 loss to Liberty as 17-point favorites last week.
Virginia Tech’s biggest problem this season has been its defense. The Hokies rank 95th in total yards allowed per game and 98th against the run. Now, they have to deal with D’Eriq King and the Canes dynamic offense.
King has thrown for 1,828 yards, with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 63.7 percent of his passes. He also has 406 yards and two scores on the ground. Further, he can lean on the help of a stud running back in Cam’Ron Harris who has rumbled for 396 yards and five touchdowns.
On the other side, Virginia Tech’s offense is based on has a strong run game, and while the Miami defense isn’t dominant as it has been in recent years, they're still very talented and can really cause havoc against a team that becomes one-dimensional. I really do expect The U to win this game, take them on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Miami Moneyline (+105)
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies
This isn’t so much an endorsement of Fresno State as it is a condemnation of Utah State. Let's just put this out there: The Aggies might be the worst team in college football this season.
Utah State is 0-3 SU/ATS, getting outscored 114-29 in the process, and after last week’s 34-9 loss to Nevada, the school parted ways with coach Gary Anderson. It's just hard to find the bright spots on this Aggies’ season. They rank 117th in total offense at 209.3 yards per game and 120th in total defense, giving up over 520 yards per game.
Meanwhile, Fresno State followed a season-opening loss to Hawaii with wins over Colorado State and UNLV, going 2-0 ATS. The Bulldogs will attack the Aggies through the air. Led by QB Jake Haener, the ‘Dogs rank 26th in the country in passing yards per game and will go against an Aggies team that ranks 104th against the pass.
Utah State is just a mess in all phases of the game right now, and Fresno State will also have revenge on its mind after losing last year’s matchup. The Bulldogs should cruise in this one and win by at least a couple of touchdowns.
PREDICTION: Fresno State -10 (-110)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs New Mexico Lobos
It’s been a tough week for New Mexico. First, the Lobos' home game against Nevada has been moved to a neutral site in, wait for it, Nevada, due to new COVID-19 regulations in the state. Second, starting quarterback Tevaka Tuioti is expected to miss this contest with a concussion.
That’s a huge blow to the Lobos’ offense as Tuioti not only has thrown for 475 yards and four touchdowns through the team’s first two games, he also leads the team in rushing with 140 yards and another score on the ground. That doesn’t bode well going up against a sneaky-good Wolf pack defense that ranks 13th in total yards against per game.
But the biggest problem for New Mexico in this game may be the fact it has allowed 891 passing yards over its first two games and now face arguably the best quarterback in the Mountain West in Carson Strong.
Strong has been outstanding for Nevada through their first three games, completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 1,1,81 yards with nine touchdowns and no picks. That’s good for the country’s second-ranked passing offense.
There just doesn’t look like a scenario where New Mexico can keep up and or slow down Nevada in this matchup. Lay the points with the favorite in this one.
PREDICTION: Nevada -17.5 (-110)
Last week's NCAAF record: 3-0
Season to date: 12-15
Triple Option NCAA Football Betting Card for Week 11
- Miami Moneyline (+105)
- Fresno State -10 (-110)
- Nevada -17.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NCAA Triple Option picks, you could win $64.71 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on College Football?
You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.
