Colorado State vs Colorado Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Buffs Stampede the Rams

Has there been a more exciting team in college football this season than Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes?

After back-to-back statement wins, Deion Sanders & Co. look to keep rolling as they host the Colorado State Rams this evening.

Looking at the college football odds, the Buffaloes are favored to run all over their opponent and move to 3-0 on the young season. 

Will Shedeur Sanders and this prolific offense continue to find success this week? I answer that — and — more in my college football picks for Colorado State vs. Colorado on Saturday, September 16.

Also, be sure to check out our college football prop picks for tonight's game in Boulder!

Colorado State vs Colorado best odds

Colorado State vs Colorado picks and predictions

The Colorado Buffaloes were listed as 17-point favorites on the look-ahead line before their shellacking of Nebraska in Week 2. That line quickly jumped up to -21 following that victory and has continued to creep upward, sitting at -22.5 at the time of this writing.

To understand the love for the Buffaloes, let’s first create some context for their Week 3 opponent. 

It was a disaster for Jay Norvell in Year 1 with the Colorado State Rams. They finished 3-9 thanks to an offense that looked utterly incapable of finding the endzone, failing to reach 20 points in a game all season long. 

Massive improvement was expected in Year 2 with the roster filled out and part of the rebuilding supposedly accomplished. It looks like there may still be a long way to go for Norvell to bring this program to prominence as the Rams looked familiarly unprepared and outgunned in an opening 50-24 loss the Washington State. 

Starting quarterback Clay Millen, who was recruited by Norvell at Nevada and transferred in last year as QB1, has been benched for this contest. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has been announced as the starter against the Buffaloes. He entered in relief against the Cougars after Millen averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt.

The good news is that the offense looked a lot better with Fowler-Nicolosi under center and really didn’t do a bad job against the Cougars, averaging 5.6 yards per play overall while managing 320 passing yards. For context, Wisconsin mustered 5.3 yards per play (0.3 less), 278 passing yards (42 less), and 22 points (two less) last week against that same WSU defense. 

The 24 points by the Rams was the most this program has scored since November 2021 against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, and the passing yardage total would’ve been second most in a game last season. 

The Rams have two star receivers in Tory Horton (1,131 receiving yards, eight touchdowns a year ago) and Justus Ross-Simmons (123 receiving yards, one TD in the opener). That should ease the burden on the new quarterback and allow the offense to move the ball against an underwhelming Buffaloes defense.

Even if the quarterback switch is a temporary one meant to coax better performances out of the incumbent starter, there’s enough pass-catching talent that the Rams should contribute to the total. 

Now, I’ve buried the lede a bit here — but you already know about Colorado’s amazing start to the season. Shedeur Sanders leads the nation with 451.5 passing yards per game and has three impact receivers to throw to in Xavier Weaver, Jimmy Horn Jr., and Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes are averaging 40.5 PPG to start the year and will score a lot of points in Sean Lewis’ up-tempo system this season. 

OMG SHEDEUR SANDERS!!!

This is one of the best plays you’ll see all season!!! @CUBuffsFootball pic.twitter.com/fcmUNVNhZW

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) September 9, 2023

The CSU defense was torched for 556 total yards in its opening game against Washington State. Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward completed 37 of 49 pass attempts for 451 yards and three scores, so we should expect another monster game from Sanders and this prolific passing attack. Each of Colorado’s first two opponents has a better defense than the one it’ll face tonight. 

Deion and this staff are going to let Shedeur cook in order to rack up stats. They’ll have every opportunity to do so in a soft Week 3 matchup and I still have enough questions about the defense. I can see Colorado State contributing to this total in a game with an absurd amount of wide receiver talent on the field for both teams. 

My best bet: Over 59 (-110 at bet365)

Colorado State vs Colorado same-game parlay

Over 59.5 (-110)

Colorado -22.5 (-110)

+200 at DraftKings

You can call Colorado and the Over square plays if you want, but the fact is that the books were dead wrong about Coach Prime, his team, and especially this offense heading into the season. A win total of 3.5 was clearly not correct, and expectations were far too low for a Sean Lewis-coordinated offense with an impact passer and loads of skill position talent.

Shedeur Sanders’ regular season passing yards prop of 2,725 was one of my favorite preseason player prop Over bets, and his touchdown prop of 19.5 simply wasn’t close to what I projected. 

The books are acting quickly to rework Colorado expectations — but not quickly enough. I think they’re getting close and there will likely be an overcorrection at some point, but it’s not here.

Sanders and this offense should cook at home against a defense that just allowed 50 points to another high-flying, pass-first Pac-12 offense. The Buffaloes could get close to, or exceed, that mark and therefore should cover this spread barring a defensive collapse. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado State vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

There was a bit of buyback on Colorado State recently — the line briefly jumped to +23.5 before settling down a point to +22.5. That being said, I think it’s highly likely this line only moves back up in Colorado’s direction prior to kick. It’s still early in the week and the deluge of Buffaloes money is coming at some point. 

Colorado is 2-0 ATS on the year and has found both covers with ease. The Buffaloes were +21 against TCU yet won the game outright on the road while dropping 45 points on last year’s National Championship runner-ups. Then, they moved from +7 to -2.5 against Nebraska but that line movement wasn’t close to enough as Coach Prime & Co. rolled to an easy 36-14 victory. 

Colorado State, meanwhile, was overvalued in its opener. The Rams were +8 against Washington State yet were run off the field by a score of 50-24.

There will be improvement this season after Norvell’s squad played with just 59 scholarship players a year ago and has since upped that number to 85. Still, it seems as though the gap between incompetence and relevance is larger than the books expected heading into the year. 

If the Rams do show vast improvement, it likely won’t be until the season is a bit further along and their new redshirt freshman quarterback gets a chance to gel with his two superb wide receivers.

On the other side, if the Buffaloes do regress, it’ll likely be against a tough Pac-12 schedule starting with No. 13 Oregon next week. I don’t see this being the spot where the cracks start to show. 

Colorado State vs Colorado betting trend to know

Colorado has gone Over this total in nine of its last 12 games, good for a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado State vs Colorado.

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