The Minnesota Golden Gophers look to continue their hot start to the 2022 college football season when they host the 0-2 Colorado Buffaloes at Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday.
The Gophers dominated in their first two season home games and opened as a 25- to 27-point favorite at most sportsbooks. Colorado is off to a rough start in Karl Dorrell’s third season as head coach, allowing 79 points while scoring a combined 23 across their first two matchups. The Buffaloes are likely in for a rough afternoon against Minneapolis, who beat the Buffs 30-0 last season on the road.
Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for the Week 3 meeting between Colorado and Minnesota.
Colorado vs Minnesota best odds
Colorado vs Minnesota picks and predictions
No team averages more yards of offense in the FBS than Minnesota at the moment, and the Gophers get a chance to run up and down the field for the third straight week when they face a Buffaloes defense that surrendered 413 yards to TCU in Week 1 and 443 yards to Air Force in Week 2.
Minnesota earned victories over weaker competition in New Mexico State and Western Illinois, with running back Mohamed Ibrahim leading the offense with an average of 131 yards per game and a pair of rushing scores in both contests.
Week 2 Performance
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 12, 2022
RB Mohamed Ibrahim - Minnesota
• 130 Rushing yards 2 TDs
• 5.7 ypc
• 1 Rec 5 yards pic.twitter.com/FCwmvXyMva
Quarterback Tanner Morgan has been solid as well, completing 73% of his combined 37 passes for 461 yards and a touchdown while also reaching paydirt on a trio of one-yard runs.
The Gophers' stop unit was a force on the other side of the ball, as it held New Mexico State to just 91 yards of offense and let Western Illinois rack up 194 yards. If Minnesota can bring the same level of dominance against Colorado, it should have little issue building a lead by halftime, but the Buffaloes will not be a total pushover out the gate.
Colorado trailed 7-6 at the half against TCU before the Horned Frogs scored 31 unanswered points in the second half, and Air Force maintained a 20-10 lead heading into the locker room, then accounted for the only points of the second half, with 21.
The Buffs will battle Minnesota early on and provide a steeper test for the Gophers' defense than Minnesota’s last two opponents. The visiting team will hang around through two quarters to make it a game, but eventually, the dam should break.
Ibrahim and the Gophers' rushing attack will plod away, picking up chunks of yardage and securing a huge win in the second half.
My best bet: Colorado first half +17 (-115 at DraftKings)
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Colorado vs Minnesota betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
So far this season, Colorado quarterback JT Shrout is just 18-for-44 (40.9%) passing for 208 yards and a touchdown, which he scored in garbage time against TCU. The Tennessee transfer was especially shaky against Air Force, as he completed five of his 21 passes for 51 yards and threw an interception.
Shrout got the start after replacing Brendon Lewis in the first half of the TCU loss. Lewis, a sophomore who was the starter last season, went 13-of-18 for 78 yards and ran for 42 yards on eight attempts.
Running back Deion Smith led the Buffaloes' rushing attack against Air Force, with 59 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, but Colorado has struggled to run the ball as a whole. The Buffs average 3.7 yards per attempt, and the defense gives up 7.1 yards on the ground. On the plus side, Colorado showed some life by forcing three turnovers against Air Force, but this team has a long way to go to get back on the winning side.
The Buffaloes are 1-5 against the spread in their last six non-conference games and 0-6 straight up in their last six road games, while Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four at home.
Over/Under analysis
The way Colorado has looked on offense, the Buffaloes will be lucky to score in double digits against Minnesota’s defense. The Gophers should be able to control the clock and keep the Buffs defense off-balance by mixing it up in the passing game, but Ibrahim and junior running back Trey Potts (168 rushing yards, three touchdowns) will star in the ground game, methodically wearing down their opponent and punching the ball into the end zone.
The Over/Under has remained steady at around 47 points, and the bulk of the scoring will come from the home team. The Under is 4-1 in Colorado’s last five non-conference games and 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six versus the Pac-12. The total has also gone Under in five of the Gophers’ last six home games.
Last year, Minnesota generated 441 yards of offense to Colorado’s 63. The Gophers ran for 227 yards while winning the time of possession battle 40:13 to 19:47. That was without Ibrahim, who suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the 2021 season.
With the senior back in the lineup, you can expect an even stronger showing from Minnesota’s rushing attack and an outcome reminiscent of last year’s beatdown in Boulder.
Colorado vs Minnesota game info
• Location: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Colorado vs Minnesota key injuries
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Colorado vs Minnesota weather
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Colorado vs Minnesota betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado vs. Minnesota.
