Colorado vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Friday Night Fireworks in SoCal

The No. 8 USC Trojans look to continue their success with a home matchup against the Pac-12’s weakest team.

Lincoln Riley’s first season in SoCal has gone according to plan thus far, although there is still work to be done in a competitive conference race at the top of the standings. The Trojans will look to remain in the hunt in a soft matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes. Will this be the cakewalk that the betting market expects it to be?

Read our college football picks and predictions for Colorado vs. USC below to find out. 

Colorado vs USC best odds

Colorado vs USC picks and predictions

Make no mistake about it — this Colorado team is among the worst in the entire country. The Buffaloes have been an unmitigated disaster in 2022, firing Karl Dorrell after an 0-5 start and sitting at 1-8 overall.

Whoever takes over this program in the offseason has plenty of work to do before a competitive team is seen on the field in Boulder. Dorrell is an old-school football coach who struggled to adapt to the current age of NIL and the transfer portal, leaving his team far behind the rest of the nation.

Colorado ranks 130th in scoring defense, allowing 40.2 points per game. This unit has truly been among the nation’s worst in a multitude of categories, notably ranking 129th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 128th in success rate. Considering that the USC Trojans' offense averages 41 points per game, we can expect them to do some serious damage in this matchup.

The Buffaloes can’t stop the rush, allowing a whopping 232.6 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. Expect Trojans running back Travis Dye to find repeated success for a rushing attack that ranks fifth in EPA and seventh in success rate. USC’s offensive line has been surprisingly excellent in run blocking this season, ranking third in line yards and 18th in stuff rate.

Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams has been on an absolute tear lately, accumulating 15 total touchdowns in his last three games. He now has 28 touchdowns and only one interception on the year and should torch a Buffaloes secondary that ranks 128th in EPA and 127th in success rate against the pass. 

USC has scored at least 41 points in four of its last five games, and we can expect a huge offensive performance at home against the softest opponent it will see all season. Since team totals have not been released as of the time of this writing, we will choose to target the full-game total as our best bet.

While the Trojans’ offense is elite, the defense simply isn’t up to par. They’ve allowed at least 35 points in each of their last three games while dealing with a litany of injuries. While Colorado’s offense isn't great, its success rate (114th) is actually better than USC’s defense (117th) this season.

When USC played a comparable defense in Rice early this year, the Trojans dropped 66 points in a game that flew Over the total (61) by 19 points. I’ll be expecting a similar offensive explosion in Week 11.

My best bet: Over 65.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Colorado vs USC spread analysis

The spread is set at USC -34 at most books as of the time of this writing, although -34.5 is also showing in some spots. 

The Trojans have been favored by at least 20 points in three games this season, going 1-2 ATS. The lone time they were favored by at least 30 points came in the season opener against Rice, where they won 66-14 to easily cover the 31.5-point spread.

Their recent performance has not done much to inspire confidence in laying such a huge number, as they narrowly defeated Cal 41-35 as 21-point favorites a week ago and squeaked by Arizona 45-37 as 14-point favorites before that. 

The issue with looking toward the Colorado side is that the Buffaloes are just 2-7 ATS and they are a terrible football team. They have been an underdog of at least 20 points on four separate occasions, failing to cover each time.

Their best player on offense lately has been Jordyn Tyson, a freshman receiver who has accumulated 252 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. It was announced after last week’s game against Oregon that Tyson would miss the remainder of the season due to injury, which is a huge blow for a team struggling to find any bright spots.

Everything considered this one should be a blowout in favor of USC.

Colorado vs USC Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 66 across most books at the time of this writing, although 65.5 is also available. This hit the board at 64, so it’s possible this one will continue to rise before kickoff.

Both teams have been a profitable 6-3 to the Over this season — they’ve just arrived there in different ways. USC has found success thanks to Lincoln Riley’s offense clicking immediately in SoCal, ranking seventh in scoring offense and ninth in total offense with 495.9 yards per game. 

Caleb Williams is a bonafide Heisman candidate after his stellar performance thus far. What’s even more remarkable about him racking up 10 total touchdowns in the last two games is that he’s done so without the help of his two best receivers, Jordan Addison and Mario Williams.

Most offenses would crumble sans the services of Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff winner, but the Trojans have kept chugging along and should find little resistance whether they suit up Friday or not. Both Addison and Williams are considered questionable. 

The Trojans still have a lot of work to do defensively. Their main issue has been stopping the run, where they rank 123rd in EPA per rush and 124th in success rate. Colorado’s offense isn’t a world-beater, but they do rank 65th in rushing success rate and should stumble into a few touchdowns of their own.

Colorado vs USC betting trend to know

The Over is 9-1 in USC's last 10 games vs. teams with losing records. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colorado vs. USC.

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