Duke vs UCF Prediction: Military Bowl Odds and Picks

Figuring out Bowl game odds is about identifying the motivations of the teams that are involved, and this year’s Military Bowl between the UCF Knights and the Duke Blue Devils is a perfect example of that.

UCF probably had higher aspirations for bowl season prior to a loss in the AAC title game. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are a team that greatly exceeded expectations following an 8-win campaign and are looking to get head coach Mike Elko a bowl win in his first season at the helm.

The Knights opened this matchup as slight favorites, but those motivations were quickly realized and the line jumped the fence, and now it’s the men in blue laying the points. I break down this matchup and bring you my best bet for the Military Bowl in my free college football picks for UCF vs. Duke.

Duke vs UCF best odds

Duke vs UCF picks and predictions

It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for UCF, but it ended with a shot to win its first AAC title since 2018. Unfortunately, Knights' quarterback John Rhys Plumlee was battling through injuries in that game against Tulane and UCF fell 45-28. 

So, instead of playing in the Cotton Bowl against USC on Jan. 2, the Knights are now playing in the Military Bowl against Duke. Meaning this game may not live up to UCF’s expectations and it could turn its focus to next season.

Plumlee has announced he will return to UCF for his senior season, but his status for this bowl game is up in the air. The Knights’ QB has dealt with a concussion, a shoulder issue, and a hamstring injury. So, don’t be surprised if they tell Plumlee to sit this one out. But if he doesn’t play, it could be a long day for the Knights as experienced backup QB Mikey Keene has entered the transfer portal. 

But even if Plumlee does play, he will be without his top weapon in wideout Ryan O’Keefe who transferred to Boston College, and his play caller as offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey took the same position at UNC.

On the other side, talk about exceeding expectations. Duke entered the season with a win total of three. Three. So, eight wins is already an outstanding feat. Now, the team will want to cap its season with the program’s first bowl win since 2018.

The Blue Devils went 5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread down the stretch, with the three losses coming by a combined eight points. Duke is led by dual-threat QB Riley Leonard who threw for 2,794 yards and 20 touchdowns with seven picks, while adding another 635 yards and 11 scores on the ground. 

He goes against a UCF defense that ranked 102nd in opponent yards per play and will be down two starters to the transfer portal.

Jump on the motivated Blue Devils before they go through the key number of three.

My best bet: Duke -3 (-110 at bet365)

Duke vs UCF spread analysis

UCF opened as the 2.5-point favorite for the Military Bowl but that was short-lived as the line jumped the fence to Duke -2. Since then, the line has settled around the Blue Devils' -3 mark.

As noted, this makes sense. The Knights could be down to their third-string QB if Plumlee is unable to go. Mix in all the losses to the transfer portal and it seems pretty clear that the Blue Devils should be the favorites in this matchup. 

Duke is an ACC program on the rise with head coach Mike Elko leading the way. The team is motivated to play in this game and secure a bowl win in Elko’s first season at the helm. All of the Blue Devils' key players will suit up for this game and only a few seldom-used reserves entered the transfer portal.

I could see this number continuing to climb in Duke's favor as kickoff approaches, so grabbing the Blue Devils now as opposed to later looks like a good idea.

Duke vs UCF Over/Under analysis

The total hit for the Military Bowl hit the board at 61.5 and has seen far less action than the side as of December 21, moving up slightly to 62.5. It’s hard to get a read on the total until we figure out whether or not Plumlee is playing.

Duke’s offense should do its part with Leonard under center. The Blue Devils averaged 33.1 points per game this season and get to go against a UCF defense that is missing some key contributors. But like I said, it’s the UCF offense that could have trouble doing its part if you like the Over.

Third-string QB Thomas Castellanos has thrown just 16 passes this season. He came in to relieve an injured Plumlee in the AAC title game against Tulane and went just 2-for-8 for seven yards. While he’ll have more time to prep for this game, relying on him to lead this offense without its best wideout is a tough ask.

Either way, I'll probably stay away from the total.

Duke vs UCF betting trend to know

UCF is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. ACC opponents while Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. UCF.

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