Eastern Michigan vs Toledo Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Up, Up, and Away

Are you ready for some more early week MAC-tion? Tonight we get a look at arguably the best the conference has to offer when the 8-1 Toledo Rockets host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.

The Rockets lift off thanks to a burning hot rushing attack led by star running back Peny Boone and dual-threat quarterback Dequan Finn. That dynamic duo has carried Toledo to eight straight wins heading into this matchup with Eastern Michigan.

The Eagles, on the other hand, have failed to take flight on offense and as a result, are just 2-3 in conference play. 

That said, the Rockets have struggled to cover big spreads this season and will be laying another big number in this matchup. Can they buck that trend and cover the big chalk, or does the underdog have some value in this MACtion?

I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo on November 8.

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo best odds

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo picks and predictions

Toldeo has generally looked impressive on its way to an 8-1 record. The Toledo Rockets look like a balanced team, ranking 25th in yards per play and 30th in opponent yards per play, and were oh so close to having a perfect record, falling by just two points to Illinois in their first game of the season. 

On offense, the Rockets boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The team ranks eighth in yards per carry at 5.5 yards per attempt and is rumbling for nearly 230 yards per game. Running back Peny Boone is the catalyst, totaling 990 rushing yards at a ridiculous clip 7.3 yards per carry while scoring 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Dequan Finn has also added 489 yards and five scores on the ground.

And even though running the football is this team’s bread and butter, this offense is dangerous because you still need to respect Finn’s arm. He’s completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,592 yards and 15 touchdowns compared to six interceptions.

But Toledo may not need Finn’s arm in this one. 

Eastern Michigan enters this game with a 4-5 record, but those wins have come against opponents with a combined six wins this season and FCS Howard. While the Eagles' defense is OK on a yards-per-play basis, they are getting absolutely trampled on the ground.

EMU ranks 109th in the country when it comes to opponent yards per rushing attempt, giving up nearly five yards per carry, totaling 199 rushing yards allowed per game which ranks 125th in the country.

With Eastern Michigan’s offense being a black hole for production on top of that this looks like an easy cover for the Rockets.

But despite Toledo’s success, the team has had issues covering big numbers in conference play so far this season. The Rockets have been 13.5-point favorites or greater in five MAC games this year and have only covered the spread once in those games. On top of that, the Eagles have been a little scrappy lately going 4-1 ATS in their last five. 

So, instead, I’m looking at Toledo to go Over its team total which is sitting at 32.5. The Rockets average 34.4 points per game and have topped this number in three of their last six games overall. Additionally, the nature of their running offense allows them to keep the same game plan even if they get up big. 

My best bet: Toledo team total Over 32.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo same-game parlay

Toledo alt team total Over 30.5

First score method - Toledo TD

Peny Boone 2+ TD

30% boost available

+320 +416 at bet365

As per usual, our same-game parlay starts with my best bet, which for this MAC-tion throwdown is Toledo to go Over its team total of 32.5. But for our SGP purposes let’s play it a little bit safer and take the alternate team total Over 30.5.

I also believe the Rockets will find the endzone early in this one, so add them to open the scoring in this game with a touchdown. And who is going to score that touchdown? Probably Peny Boone. He’s scored nine times this season. But he also has multi-touchdown games in the games where the Rockets were favored by 17.5 points or more. They are 18.5-point favorites in this one.

If these three legs hit we cash a modest +320 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this Wednesday night MAC battle hit the board with Toledo as a 19-point home favorite and you can find them around -19 or -18.5 as of Monday evening. 

As noted, this is not a surprising line. Toledo will have a great opportunity to put up some points in this one. But the other part of that is Eastern Michigan’s offense is bad. Like, really bad. 

The Eagles get inconsistent quarterback play from Austin Smith, who completes just 57% of his passes and can only rush the ball for 3.2 yards per attempt. Hence some ugly overall numbers. EMU ranks 132nd in total offense, 130th in yards per play, and 120th in scoring offense at just 18.6 points per game. 

It doesn’t help the Eagles’ case that the Rockets have a solid defense that ranks 25th in opponent yards per play. 

If I was forced to make a play I would take Toledo but because of the issues with big spreads, I’m staying away.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 46 and has been bet up slightly to 46.5. And even though I’m on Toledo to go Over its team total I’m also staying away from the full game total as well. That’s because of that same EMU offense. There is a very good chance the Eagles have trouble scoring here and the Rockets would have to do most of the work for this to go Over. I’m just not sure it will be enough.

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo betting trend to know

Toledo has hit the Team Total Over in two of their last three games at home for +0.80 units. Find more college football betting trends for Eastern Michigan vs Toledo.

Eastern Michigan vs Toledo game info

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