5 NCAAF Player Prop Bets You Need to Make Before the Season Kicks Off

The 2023 college football season gets underway in earnest in Week 1 with games on tap from Thursday through Monday of a loaded weekend.

There are a bevy of college football odds and I believe the regular season player props can be a golden ticket if you know what you're looking for.

Will Shedeur Sanders crush it for his father (Coach Prime) in their first years at the FBS level? Is Texas back — and will their top wide receiver return to form? Will Florida State’s offense live up to the hype? Are the offensive coordinator changes at Arkansas and Clemson being accurately accounted for in the market?

I’ve got the answers to all those questions in my best college football player prop picks below. Enjoy the start of the season!

Prop bet #1: Prime Time

One of the biggest storylines in college football this season is Deion Sanders and his first season as head coach of the Colorado Buffaloes. While the headlines may be interesting, I’m more interested in the production on the field from Coach Prime’s son — starting quarterback Shedeur Sanders.

He carved up FCS competition at Jackson State last year, throwing for 3,752 yards and 40 touchdowns en route to being named a Walter Payton Award finalist. While he’ll need to prove himself against tougher competition, he’s emerged as a darkhorse NFL Draft prospect and plays in a Pac-12 conference that was defensively incompetent a year ago.

While I’m not knocking their talents in the slightest, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that we saw huge years from quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix a year ago. Eight of the league’s 12 teams finished 94th or worse in EPA per play on defense.

Coach Prime tabbed former Kent State offensive coordinator Sean Lewis as his offensive coordinator and it has the making of a home run hire. It certainly could lead to some big stat lines for his players as Lewis operates his offense at breakneck speed, averaging 22.4 seconds per snap over the last four years (third fewest nationally), per TruMedia.

Lewis’ quarterbacks have averaged 3,213 passing yards and 21 touchdowns through the air since 2014 while usually putting up gaudy rushing totals.

While Sanders can move, he’s much more in the pocket passer mold than Lewis’ typical quarterbacks and has some talented wide receivers to throw to, so I anticipate a big year throwing the ball. I like the Over on both his yardage total and passing touchdown (19.5) totals.

Shedeur Sanders Prop: Over 2,725.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Is there a team with more hype behind them than the Florida State Seminoles? After finishing with 10 wins a year ago, Mike Norvell’s squad is a popular bet to win the ACC championship, sitting at +155 on DraftKings at current — right on the heels of Clemson at +145.

I see the reason for the hype. This team is extremely talented, has a wealth of returning experience, and appeared to hit a few home runs in the transfer portal.

The offense, in particular, has my attention as the Seminoles return eight starters to a Top-10 unit from a year ago. They ranked eighth in EPA per play and sixth in standard down EPA per play en route to 36.1 points per game.

Opposing defenses simply couldn’t stop this team from running the football — they averaged 214.1 rushing yards per game while ranking fourth in EPA per rush and eighth in rushing success rate. It should be more of the same this year as the offensive line returns a ridiculous 206 starts and they have a potential star at running back in Trey Benson.

An Oregon transfer, Benson posted a superb 91.4 rushing grade, according to PFF. He’s the complete package with speed (third nationally with a 56.1% breakaway percentage) and power (79 missed tackles forced, 4.53 average yards after contact per attempt).

The talent is there and the opportunity should be as well as Treshaun Ward and his 628 rushing yards from a year ago left via the portal. While at Memphis, Norvell’s RB1 averaged 1,507 rushing yards over a three-year stint. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect something similar from Benson in 2023.

Trey Benson Prop: Over 1,000.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Arkansas Razorbacks third-year starting quarterback KJ Jefferson is one of my favorite players in college football. He’s a huge (6-foot-3, 247 pounds) bruiser with good speed and power, has underrated accuracy throwing the ball, and is one of the best signal-callers in the nation.

I say all this to set the stage that fading KJ is simply not something that has been my MO over the last two years — I’ve been as effusive in my praise of this quarterback as possible. It therefore stands out to me that his passing yardage prop of 2,625.5 appears to be a tick high and I’m looking at the Under.

It’s important to keep in mind that the player props are for the regular season only and do not include the bowls or any postseason games. Given that’s the case, KJ has finished below this number in two straight years if we only look at regular season games.

While he’s likely due for another big year on the ground, the Hogs’ passing attack could take a step back as the team loses its top four wide receivers and top tight end from a year ago, not to mention three starters up front.

There’s also a change in offensive coordinator, where Kendal Briles and his Air Raid roots depart for the TCU Horned Frogs while Dan Enos and his Pro Style arrive via the Maryland Terrapins.

Despite having a good quarterback and plenty of weapons in the passing attack, the Terps finished with just one play of 50+ yards all season and had half as many explosive passing plays as the Razorbacks did a year ago.

He’ll look to slow the tempo of the offense down and they should rush the ball a ton. None of this information leads me to believe KJ will put forth a career-best in regular-season passing yardage.

KJ Jefferson Prop: Under 2,625.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

When USC Trojans star Caleb Willaims won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, it marked Lincoln Riley's third quarterback to win the award since 2017.

Lincoln isn’t the only one in the family who is a bit of a QB whisperer — his younger brother, Garrett, does a pretty nice job offensively with that position as well.

Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney took note of what the younger Riley accomplished for the upstart TCU Horned Frogs, who surprised the nation by making a National Championship appearance thanks in part to an offense that averaged 38.8 PPG under Garrett’s guise.

Riley takes over Clemson’s offense and that’s music to the ears of Cade Klubnik, a former five-star recruit who enters his second year on campus and first as the starter.

He showed a glimpse of his ability in the ACC Championship Game against UNC, coming on in relief of DJ Uiagalelei and completing 20 of his 24 attempts (83.3%) for 279 passing yards (11.6 yards per attempt) and a score.

He clearly possesses a ton of talent and it’s up to Riley to unlock the best in him. The receiving room around him is back healthy to enter the year and the top three of Antonio Williams, Beaux Collins, and Adam Randall offer more promise than we’ve seen at Clemson in a few years.

Riley’s QB1 has averaged 3,522 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns across the last four complete seasons, so I believe Klubnik’s regular season passing yards prop of 2,900.5 is a bit too low.

Cade Klubnik Prop: Over 2,900.5 passing yards (-112 at FanDuel)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic