Brian Kelly’s LSU debut will be front and center as the Tigers take on Florida State in Sunday’s lone game. This is a matchup of big-name programs looking to return to prominence after some down years.
LSU fans and backers will be expecting a strong start to the Kelly era, while Mike Norvell is hoping for an early-season signature win for the Seminoles.
Oddsmakers are giving the Tigers the slight edge in this one but there could be some value with the underdog Seminoles, who come into this game a little better prepared following a solid performance against FCS Duquesne in Week 0.
Check out my free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 1 showdown between Florida State and LSU.
Florida State vs LSU best odds
Florida State vs LSU picks and predictions
My best bet: Over 49.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
You can’t take a whole lot away from Florida State’s 47-7 win over FCS Duquesne last week, other than it gave Mike Norvell and quarterback Jordan Travis some confidence heading into this matchup against LSU.
Obviously, the Tigers will have a much fiercer defensive front than Duquesne, but there are still some weaknesses to be exploited, particularly in the secondary. This unit is replacing as many as four starters and ranked 91st in the country when it came to passing yards allowed per game last season.
Now, that Tigers defensive front could give Travis some problems, but look for the Seminoles to roll him out and call more designed quarterback runs to help mitigate an aggressive LSU front seven. That, in turn, should open things up for Travis to attack the questionable Tigers' secondary on the outside.
The question for LSU is how prepared will Brian Kelly have this offense. It sounds like Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels has won the starting job, and while inconsistent play plagued his time in Tempe, there is no denying he's a talented player.
It won’t hurt that Daniels will also be playing with much more talent in Louisiana. The wide receiver room is deep and features maybe the best wideout in the country in Kayshon Boutte. The junior has over 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 16 games played in his LSU career. That's even more impressive considering how much of a mess the program has been the last two seasons.
This group will cause headaches for the Seminoles secondary, and without the likes of Jermaine Johnson to provide constant pressure, Daniels should be able to hit enough big plays to help send this game Over the number.
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Florida State vs LSU betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
LSU is a 3 to 3.5-point favorite for this matchup, being played in the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The number is a little surprising, and it isn’t all at the same time. Generally, I would say LSU is the more talented team, but there are so many questions surrounding the program heading into Kelly’s first game on the sidelines. Will all the new faces in a new system bring results right away?
Meanwhile, Florida State is trying to make a leap in Year 3 with Mike Norvell at the helm. Whether he can bring the Seminoles to their first bowl during his tenure will depend on his ability to develop Travis.
Overall, these teams look somewhat similar on paper. Strong play on both lines, mobile quarterbacks, and good to great wide receiver play. Which is probably why this line is so close.
That said, I don’t have a strong feeling either way when it comes to the side, but would lean towards LSU if you can get them at less than a field goal. Being at home (kind of), having a stronger defensive line and the better-skill position players gives them the edge.
Over/Under analysis
The number opened at 51.5, and while the early money has been on the Under and driven the number down to 49.5, I’ve already laid out why I like the Over in this matchup.
While it was just a win against Duquesne, it was nice to see the Seminoles be effective with so many running back and consistently put up points. Remember, it was just last season when FSU lost to FCS Jacksonville State.
But we also saw Travis and the Seminoles' offense improve as the season went on, putting up 29.9 points per game over their final eight games.
On the other side, Kelly is hoping, with a new system and some tremendous weapons around him, that Daniels will be able to re-find the magic from his freshman season at Arizona State where he threw for 2,943 yards with 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions while adding another 355 yards and three scores on the ground.
Both quarterbacks should be able to extend plays in this game and connect on several big chunk plays throughout the game. At 49.5, the total feels about a field goal too low.
Florida State vs LSU game info
• Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Florida State vs LSU key injuries
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Florida State vs LSU weather
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Florida State vs LSU betting trend to know
The Over is 7-2 in Florida State's last nine neutral site games and 10-3-1 in LSU's 14 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. LSU.
