Florida State vs Syracuse Odds, Picks and Predictions: Orange Play the Seminoles Tough

The Syracuse Orange will try to end a three-game losing streak when they host the Florida State Seminoles at the JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday night.

Syracuse started 6-0 but has lost its last three games to fall out of the national rankings. No. 25 Florida State holds the same record but is riding a two-game winning streak into Saturday’s showdown.

The Orange have struggled over the past few weeks, but they get to return home to face the Seminoles. We’ll break down whether that will be enough to turn things around in our college football betting picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Syracuse on November 12.

Florida State vs Syracuse best odds

Florida State vs Syracuse picks and predictions

Syracuse has already surprised pundits this year, winning six games and securing bowl eligibility before losing a game. But the shine has worn off the Orange a bit, as they’ve lost their last three games and have looked bad for much of the last two contests.

A close loss to the Clemson Tigers was followed by a 41-24 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, followed by a 19-9 defeat at the Pittsburgh Panthers. The loss of quarterback Garrett Shrader to a concussion during the Notre Dame game has made the situation worse, as backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson hasn’t been able to produce much offense outside of a couple of drives against the Irish.

Florida State is heading in the opposite direction. The Seminoles have won two straight games by wide margins, blowing out both the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Miami Hurricanes to move back into the AP Top 25 and the College Football Playoff rankings. Florida State also has a signature win, having beaten the LSU Tigers 24-23 back in early September.

Why aren’t the Seminoles a potential ACC champion or a playoff contender? Florida State has been inconsistent this season. While the great results I mentioned above mark the high points for the program, it has also lost to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the NC State Wolfpack, while it struggled to get past the Louisville Cardinals. Notably, Syracuse blew out Louisville and had a fairly easy time with NC State as well.

Even during its recent struggles, the Syracuse defense has played fairly well. Notre Dame and Clemson showed that you can run against the Orange, and Pittsburgh managed to be productive on the ground against them even without star running back Israel Abanikanda, but Syracuse continues to shut down opposing passing attacks and is only allowing 18.4 points per game to opponents.

With Florida State yet to show it can be consistently great, and the Syracuse defense likely to keep the score close, it was surprising to see the Seminoles posted as a touchdown favorite in this game. That’s especially true with the Orange at home. While this will be a difficult game for Syracuse to win, it is likely to be a close, low-scoring affair.

That has me backing the Orange here with the points. While most sites have their main line as exactly a touchdown, FanDuel is offering Syracuse +7.5 at a very reasonable price of -124. Getting that hook is key, as this could easily be a game where the Seminoles hold off the Orange by a single score, and that half-point helps us cover a key number. 

My best bet: Syracuse +7.5 (-124 at FanDuel)

Florida State vs Syracuse spread analysis

Sportsbooks initially opened this game at Florida State -6, but bettors pushed the line up to a touchdown or more across the board. Most sites now have this game with a seven-point spread, and a few are offering Syracuse +7.5 as their main line.

Both of these teams have played well against the spread this year going 6-3 ATS to match their straight up records. Syracuse has lost its last two games ATS, while Florida State has covered in each of the past two weeks.

I’m betting Syracuse mostly because its defense should keep it in the game against the Seminoles, but there are a couple of storylines to watch on the Orange offense as well. 

If Shrader can play on Saturday, then locking them in at +7.5 is especially valuable, as this is a different offensive team with the dual-threat quarterback in the lineup. Also, I continue to believe that head coach Dino Babers will try to feature star running back Sean Tucker at some point, as the preseason Heisman Trophy candidate has run for just 133 yards on 31 carries during Syracuse’s three-game losing streak.

The running game will be key for Florida State as well. Running backs Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward are averaging 7.0 and 6.8 yards per carry respectively. The Seminoles will likely rely on them to carry the load instead of quarterback Jordan Travis, given how well the Orange have played against the pass — and how vulnerable they have been on the ground.

Florida State vs Syracuse Over/Under analysis

Initially, the market set the total on this game at 51.5. That number has come down slightly to 50.5 at most books as of Thursday morning.

Even that number is a bit high for this matchup. I’ve already talked about how Syracuse tends to clamp down on opposing quarterbacks. The Orange rank sixth in passing defense, allowing just 165.8 yards per game. Florida State can rely on its running game instead, but that will slow the game down and limit the scoring.

Syracuse will have to do the same against Florida State. The Seminoles are fifth in the nation against the pass, giving up just 165 yards per game through the air. The Orange haven’t accomplished much in the passing game this season — they rank 89th in passing yardage — with neither Schrader or Del-Rio Wilson lighting things up when they’ve tried to throw the ball. 

In other words, this will be a game where both teams try to find success slowly but surely on the ground. Both teams can move the ball this way, but it’s not a pathway to a high-scoring affair. Both defenses are allowing less than 20 points per game this year, and there will be plenty of stops on both sides this Saturday. I’m taking the Under at 50.5. 

Florida State vs Syracuse betting trend to know

Syracuse is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida State vs. Syracuse.

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