Florida vs Florida State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Seminoles Make It Five in a Row

If you had told me at the start of the college football season that it would be the Florida State Seminoles, not the Florida Gators, who were favored by nearly double digits heading into the Sunshine Showdown I wouldn’t have believed you.

But, that’s exactly where we’re at when these in-state rivals face off at Doak S. Campbell Stadium this Saturday. 

Things are starting to look up for Mike Norvell and the Seminoles, who come into this game as winners of four in a row straight up and against the spread, while the Gators have dropped three of five, including a tough loss to Vanderbilt last time out.

What’s the best bet with state bragging rights on the line? I dig through the numbers and tell you my favorite play in my college football picks and predictions Florida vs. Florida State.

Florida vs Florida State best odds

Florida vs Florida State picks and predictions

Florida State is probably kicking itself for some close losses earlier this season. With the way the Seminoles are playing now, they would probably take down Clemson on their way to an ACC title.

This is, quite simply, a good football team.

Despite three losses, Florida State has been impressive. Not only have the Seminoles won and covered four in a row, but they have done so by an average of 33.5 points per game and covered by an average of 18.1 points per game. On top of that, FSU had a chance to win all three times it lost, all against Top-25 opponents.

Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis is having a breakout season. Travis has thrown for 2,526 yards with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while adding another 286 yards and six scores on the ground. Running backs Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward add balance to the offense, combing for nearly 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns at nearly seven yards per carry.

Travis & Co. will be a mouthful for a toothless Gators defense. While there is some talent on Florida’s unit, it lacks overall depth and as a result, the team ranks 107th in opponent yards per play and 104th in opponent yards per rush.

Speaking of the Gators, remember when they beat Utah? Yeah, that seems like a lifetime ago.

After Billy Napier’s tenure in Gainesville started with a bang, the shine from that win has faded as the season has worn on as the Gators have relied solely on the ability of quarterback Anthony Richardson. 

The sophomore signal caller is certainly capable of creating some magic but his inconsistency in the passing game (55.7 completion percentage) and lack of support has cost the Gators. It will be hard to find their footing against a Florida State defense that ranks seventh in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents. 

Even though both teams are already bowl-eligible, I think Florida State is the team with more to play for. The Seminoles are on the rise and a win against the Gators would make them 2-0 against Florida and Miami this season, allowing FSU to proclaim itself the best program in the state to new recruits. 

Throw in the motivation of wanting to win the Sunshine Showdown for the first time since 2017, and the Seminoles look like a solid bet to win this one by double-digits.

My best bet: Florida State -9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Florida vs Florida State spread analysis

The line for the Sunshine Showdown hit the board with the Seminoles laying nine points at home and since then, they have seen the early money with the line moving to 9.5, with some 10s starting to show up on the board.

As I’ve stated above, I really like Florida State in this matchup. Florida has been too inconsistent on offense and is having trouble stopping anyone on defense. What the Gators need to do to stay competitive in this one is create turnovers, and Travis and the Seminoles do an excellent job of taking care of the football. I don’t see the Gators getting the takeaways they need in this one.

Rivalry games are always a different breed, and getting around double-digits with an SEC underdog may seem tempting, but Florida State is undoubtedly the more complete football team, with more to play for, and is playing at home. It doesn’t hurt the favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 Sunshine Showdowns.

Florida vs Florida State Over/Under analysis

The total for this rivalry game hit the board at 57.5 and hasn’t seen much action as of Thursday morning but some 58s are starting to pop up.

The Florida State offense is humming. The Seminoles are averaging 43.3 points over their last four games and are averaging 35.4 points per game this season, so I don’t think they’ll have trouble scoring against a Gators defense that doesn’t have great numbers overall and looks even worse in the games when they have played competent offenses.

In games against Utah, Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia, Florida is giving up an average of 37.8 points per game. I would lean toward the Over at this number, but no official play for me because of Florida’s inconsistencies on offense. 

Florida vs Florida State betting trend to know

Florida is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. Florida State.

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