No. 6 LSU and No. 7 Florida both have plans to reach the College Football Playoff this season and taking a loss this week is not part of the equation. One team will be forced to alter its plans after Saturday night, when the Gators visit the Tigers in Baton Rouge. **video
The Gators are 6-0 (3-3) ATS and already have three conference wins, as Kyle Trask has done admirably since taking over at quarterback. Florida announced itself as a major contender by knocking off Auburn 24-13 last week as 2.5-ponit home dogs.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have cruised to a 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS) thanks to an offense that leads the nation in scoring at 54.6 points per contest, behind Heisman candidate Joe Burrow. From the opening kickoff to the final whistle we break down the best ways to wager the odds for this epic SEC showdown.
FLORIDA GATORS AT LSU TIGERS (-13.5, 55 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
LSU has gotten off to fast starts this season, leading the country in first quarter points per game at 14.8 per contest, but they haven’t face anything nearly as good as this Florida front seven. The Gators are fifth in the nation in sacks with 26 and rank in the Top 20 in passing and rushing yards allowed per game. There will be a feeling out period early on in this game, which will be heightened by the fact that these two teams really don’t like each other. There also hasn’t been more than one touchdown scored in the first quarter of each of the past meetings between these SEC rivals. Expect this one to be physical and low-scoring early on.
Pick: Under 12.5 First Quarter Total
FIRST-HALF BET
That style of play leads right into our next bet. The Gators defensive front can give the Tigers offensive line problems in this one. They have already allowed Burrow to be sacked nine times over the first four games. Getting some pressure on Burrow could be the key to getting some turnovers, and the Gators are ball hawks. They lead the nation in interceptions with 12.
Another sign this one could be close before the break? The defenses have a strong resume in the first half. They combined to allow just 18.2 first half points per game.
Meanwhile, the Florida offense was been efficient with Trask under center. He is completing 72.2 percent of his passes and has seven touchdowns and two interceptions. If he can take care of the football early on the Gators should head into half within striking distance.
Pick: Florida +7 First Half Spread
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Terrance Marshall are as good of a wide receiver trio as there is anywhere in the country. They are all big physical weapons that can create space and attack the ball at its high point. Jefferson leads the way with 30 receptions for 547 yards and seven scores. His receiving yards total for this one sits at 74.5 and the only game he failed to go over that number was because the Tigers didn’t need him in their 66-38 beatdown of Vanderbilt. Now, this Florida secondary is the best he has faced all season, but LSU’s depth at the position will wear the Gators thin and should allow Jefferson to go Over his number.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 74.5 Receiving Yards
FULL GAME TOTAL
These SEC rivals have been playing tough matchups for years. This game has been decided by eight points or fewer in six of the last meetings and they last three have been slobber-knocking low-soring affairs, seeing a combined average of 35 points per game.
While there is no standout member of “DBU” for LSU this season, this defense should not be short-changed. The Tigers rank 13th in the country allowing just 4.3 yards per play this season and are limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 55 percent completions.
We’ve already spoken about Florida’s prowess on defense, but here’s a fun stat: LSU averages 54.6 points per game this season, while Florida has allowed just 57 points all season. The Gators will be able to slow down the Tigers’ offense enough to keep this one Under the total.
Pick: Under 55.5
FULL GAME SIDE
The Gators were able to be successful last week by shutting down the Auburn run game and daring freshman Bo Nix to beat their strong secondary. Nix felt the pressure and made a bunch of mistakes that the Gators converted to turnovers. Joe Burrow is not Nix.
As good as the Florida defense is, it’s hard to overlook Burrow’s numbers. His 78.4 completion percentage leads the nation and his 372 passing yards per game is second. Burrow also has 22 touchdowns and just two picks. He also has a stellar receiving corps to work with.
Burrow has been so good, he has overshadowed the DBU defense. While it might not be as strong as year’s past, it is still very good. Maybe not as good as Florida’s. While the offenses just don’t compare. Trask will have limit the turnover to keep this one close.
It’s hard to fade the Tigers in this spot.
Pick: LSU -13.5
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