Florida vs Utah Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Reading Between the Cam Rising Lines

The Utah Utes and Florida Gators meet tonight in one of the highlight games of the opening college football week.

This is a return game between the two with Utah losing a thriller by three points in Gainesville a season ago. However, that wasn't a sign of things to come as Utah went 10-3 with a Rose Bowl appearance. Florida was underwhelming at just 6-6 and lost to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The Utes will certainly have revenge on their minds tonight. Read our college football betting picks below to find out if they can get the job done at home. 

Florida vs Utah best odds

Florida vs Utah picks and predictions

It's nearly impossible to handicap this game without knowing the status of Utah Utes quarterback Cam Rising. The senior tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl loss last season, had surgery, and is thought to be ready for kick as he's listed first on the depth chart — but will he? 

"I don't know if we're positive right now, I can't tell you that," head coach Kyle Whittingham told the media on Monday when asked who would start at quarterback.

Whittingham remaining mum on the subject shouldn't be much of a surprise if we're being honest but if I'm reading the tea leaves, I'm predicting Rising starts on Thursday.

Not only because of the line movement but because of platitudes and offhand quotes that have been given, such as this one: "I feel pretty damn good right now," when Rising was asked how he felt. With that in mind, I'm proceeding under the assumption he'll start and am laying the points with Utah. 

The Utes are just a better football team coming into this matchup. It's pretty simple. However, you'd like to quantify that, it's the case. 

The lack of talent that previous head coach Dan Mullen brought in started to show up on the field last season, and it's undoubtedly going to be apparent this year — especially early.

The classes that will feature the most in this one all ranked outside the Top 10 and tracked pretty closely to Utah's over the same timeframe. Maybe the Florida Gators have a slight talent advantage on paper, or perhaps it's close to even, but either way, it's not enough, particularly when Utah has had years of stability and continuity on its roster.

The Utes have made their calling card on being the toughest team on your schedule. It's not something you quantify with numbers, but if you ask a coach who plays them, you'll get that answer. If you watch them play, you'll physically see them dominate their opponents — when was the last time someone said that about a Florida team?

Last year's win for the Gators in this spot was a bit of lightning in a bottle. The world didn't know how good and dynamic Anthony Richardson would be, nor did many see him as a Top-5 pick. Both things happened, and Utah was visibly unprepared to be outplayed at the quarterback position.

That won't be the case in this year's meeting. It's Graham Mertz — who will get the Week 1 start after transferring from Wisconsin a season ago — against Rising. One threw for a ratio of just about a touchdown to an interception last year, while the other is in his fourth year of the same system, coming off a 3,000-yard season with 26 touchdowns.

Utah does all the little things right. It's metrics like ranking fifth in the country in opponents' average field position vs. Florida ranking middle of the pack last season that stand out. In addition, they have the better QB on the field if Rising starts and talent overall that is close or equal.

Utah is at a much more advanced level of its progression under Kyle Whittingham and I expect them to easily cover this number Thursday night.

My best bet: Utah -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Florida vs Utah same-game parlay

Utah -6.5 (-110)

Utah 1H 3-way ML (-165)

+116 at FanDuel

I would like to pair our best bet with a few receiving props for Utah or an anytime touchdown pick like the Utes' best receiver in Devaughn Vale. Unfortunately, that was unavailable in the market at the time of publication. This is what we're left with.

My same-game parlay is an extension of my best bet belief. This Gators team is woefully unprepared for the level of physicality that it will see on Thursday night. I expect Utah to dominate this game early and often with its superiority on the offensive line and at quarterback.

That line of thinking makes this one easy. I'm betting Utah will grab the lead early and never let go of it en route to a double-digit victory. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis

Line movement has been one of the stories of this game with the in-and-out nature of Cam Rising's health status. 

As discussed above, given his offseason ACL surgery, things were unclear on whether the QB would be ready to go here. With that in the fold, bettors have essentially revealed how much he's worth to the line.

Before the depth chart was released, the spread had gotten down to as low as -3.5 in favor of Utah. After its release, it's going up to -8.5 and has settled to around -6.5. There's still no complete certainty on if Rising will start, and that's essentially the handicap of this game.

If he's a go, I have zero hesitation in backing the Utes here. They're simply a more complete and talented team. That's a little wild for the Florida football team, but it's nearly impossible to argue that that's not the case in 2023. 

I'm still in a holding pattern on most totals until after this week when we have a greater sample size on how much the running clock affects the totals.

Unfortunately, that means that bookmakers will have more of a chance to align that data with the posted totals, but it's a concussion I'm willing to make. In preliminary data, the clock widely affected teams that run the ball often. 

An excellent example of this was with Navy and how many plays it ran per minute in its loss to Notre Dame. That number was 1.65, easily the lowest of the weekend and down by a decent amount from last season.

Last season, Utah ran 73 plays per game, which was slightly above average with a good mix of run and pass. All this to express that my lean is on the Under at 44.5, especially if the Utes grab an early advantage.

They'll want to burn some clock but, more importantly, keep a potentially not 100% quarterback out of obvious passing situations. However, I expect a better number in the live markets.

Florida vs Utah betting trend to know

Utah has won 10 of its last 11 games. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Utah.

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