Fresno State vs UNLV Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rebels Back at Full Strength

After a great start to the season, the UNLV Rebels have lost their last four games. Now they host a Fresno State team that is atop the Mountain West Conference.

The Rebels were without quarterback Doug Brumfield for the last month and he returned last week in a 14-10 loss to San Diego State. UNLV is still nearly a double-digit underdog to the Bulldogs in current college football odds. 

Can Brumfield and the Rebels pull off an upset or will the Bulldogs cover the 9.5 points and thrash UNLV? Continue reading for free college football picks for Fresno State vs. UNLV tonight. 

Fresno State vs UNLV best odds

Fresno State vs UNLV picks and predictions

There was a lot of optimism around the UNLV campus that this was going to be a breakout year for third-year coach Marcus Arroyo. It certainly started that way, with the Rebels winning four out of their first five games. 

All of a sudden, whispers of being bowl eligible for the first time since 2013 were wafting through the practice field. Then starting quarterback Doug Brumfield got a concussion against San Jose State in an eventual 40-7 loss. 

That drubbing a month ago started a tailspin for the Rebels, who lost their next three. They lost 42-7 to Air Force, 44-21 at Notre Dame, and 14-10 against San Diego State following Brumfield's return last week. 

Meanwhile, Friday’s opponent, Fresno State started the season 1-4 and has rattled off four consecutive victories, including a 55-13 beatdown of Hawaii last week. 

The Bulldogs are 32nd in the country in passing, averaging 274.1 yards per game. QB Jake Haener, who returned two weeks ago from an ankle injury, has passed for 1,575 yards in nine games, checking in with a 74.3% completion rate and pulling in a 165.1 quarterback rating. 

UNLV is going to have to contend with the Bulldogs' top-ranked offense in the Mountain West. Fresno State leads in points, averaging 29.2, as well as touchdowns, with 13. 

UNLV has a decent pass defense, ranking 45th in the country, allowing an average of 212.9 yards per game. The Bulldogs are first in the Mountain West in interceptions with 13 and third in sacks with 23. 

If Brumfield is 100%, then the Rebels have a chance. They also got running back Aiden Robbins back from a knee injury last week, and he promptly ran for 115 yards on 21 carries against San Diego State. 

Another player who was injured and could make an impact on offense is wide receiver Kyle Williams. The former Mountain West Freshman of the Year is back and gives Brumfield another target. 

The line is Fresno State -9.5 and I believe this game will be much closer with UNLV deploying a much healthier squad than it has in some time.

My best bet: UNLV +9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Fresno State vs UNLV spread analysis

The line of 9.5 is too high for this game, especially with UNLV healthy again.

The key will be scoring first. In games where UNLV has allowed opponents to score first, the Rebels are 2-5 straight up. They are also 0-5 when trailing after three quarters. 

The Bulldogs are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven road games when they play a team with a losing home record. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games. 

But Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. 

The Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 20 games in their previous game. 

This game will be closer than people think. Bet on UNLV to cover the 9.5 points they are getting. 

Fresno State vs UNLV Over/Under analysis

The line on this game opened at 58.5 and has stayed there at most sportsbooks, though Caesars bumped it to 59. 

Fresno State is tops in the conference in points, averaging 29.2 while UNLV is fifth at 26. Before Brumfield got injured, however, the Rebels had scored 30 or more points in four of their first five games, including 52 against Idaho State and 58 against North Texas. 

The Under has hit more times for UNLV but I believe, with a healthy offense, it can start putting points back up on the board, especially when you consider that Fresno State is 87th in rushing defense. Robbins should be able to exploit that and pile up some yards, thus opening the passing game for Brumfield. 

The Bulldogs should also have no problem scoring. They have hit the Over in three of their last four games, scoring 30 or more in three of four. 

Fresno State is 5-4 on the Over this season and 5-0 on the Over following a SU win. It is also 5-0 on the Over after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 

UNLV has hit the Over in five of its last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Rebels are also 4-1 on the Over in their last five conference games. 

Fresno State vs UNLV betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Fresno State vs. UNLV.

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