Fresno State vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: USC Lacks Defense Needed to Cover

Lincoln Riley sure has gotten off to a nice start in Southern California. 

The USC Trojans are averaging a whopping 53.5 points per game through the first two victories of the season. Next up is a home game against the Fresno State Bulldogs, a quality Mountain West team that has put a scare into numerous Pac-12 teams of late.

Will No. 7 USC put on a display of superiority, or will Fresno State give the Trojans everything they can handle?

Check out our college football betting picks and predictions for the Fresno State vs. USC on Saturday, September 17 to find out.

Fresno State vs USC best odds

Fresno State vs USC picks and predictions

Betting against Lincoln Riley and this USC team that looks superb offensively to start the season must be crazy, right? I think the perception of this team is skewed after a couple of impressive wins over bad teams (Rice, Stanford) and that the Trojans are catching an inflated spread driven by hype.

Therefore, I’m targeting a more-than-capable Bulldogs squad catching nearly two touchdowns on the road. It’s possible this line rises to 14 at some point, but I’m not waiting around as it’s down to 12.5 everywhere other than a few books. I’ll grab the 13.5 while I can.

Last year, the Bulldogs put a scare into the Pac-12 on two separate occasions. The first came in a 31-24 loss to Oregon in the second game of the year in which Fresno was leading 21-13 and did not relinquish the lead until less than three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Then, they pulled off a 40-37 upset over the UCLA Bruins in Week 4 in one of the best games of the 2021 season.

Quarterback Jake Haener, one of the best Group of 5 quarterbacks in the country, completed 73.6% of his passes for 455 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while playing through injury in one of the gutsiest performances of the year. The Bulldogs outgained the Bruins 569-395, proving themselves to be legitimate. 

Last week, Fresno State had a chance to grab another victory over the Pac-12 after Haener engineered a go-ahead touchdown drive against Oregon State with just over a minute remaining in the game. The Beavers ultimately drove back down the field and scored as the clock expired to secure a victory, but it was yet another instance where the Bulldogs put the fear of God into a Pac-12 opponent. Fresno outgained Oregon State 492-397 as Haner threw for 360 yards and running back Jordan Mims has 122 yards and two scores. 

By now, everyone knows that USC has a lethal offense headed by star quarterback Caleb Williams and reigning Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison at receiver. This is a very dangerous offense that will score a ton of points this year — you’ll get no argument from me on that.

My concern, however, is on the defensive side of the ball. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Trojans rank 119th in rushing success rate allowed and 121st in rushing marginal explosiveness allowed.

Considering they’ve played two bad teams in Rice and Stanford and still have those numbers, I’m very concerned about that side of the ball. After ranking 103rd nationally in scoring defense (31.8 points per game) in 2021, it’s fair to question how much USC has improved defensively if at all this season. 

Fresno State has the offense to at least keep pace in this game, making them the clear side to me at this number. The Bulldogs are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the Pac-12 and I’m backing that trend to continue.

My best bet: Fresno State +13.5 (-112 at BetRivers)

Fresno State vs USC betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

USC has looked dominant through two games, bashing Rice 66-14 and beating Stanford 41-28. The offense is a functional death star with Caleb Williams leading the way and receivers like Jordan Addison and Mario Williams at his disposal. The defense has generated eight turnovers, turning into an interception machine to start the year.

Have they been fortunate in the turnover department? According to Bill Connelly, USC has eight actual turnovers despite generating just 2.3 expected turnovers. In other words, the ball has bounced very favorably for the Trojans to start the year and they’ll need to keep generating turnovers to avoid exposing a defense that has deficiencies elsewhere, especially in stopping the run. 

The Trojans have been great offensively, managing a 59% success rate. They’ve also created plenty of explosive plays, something that dried up a bit last year for Riley at Oklahoma. With a star-studded cast and manageable competition, it’s possible that explosiveness continues throughout the year. 

Fresno quarterback Jake Haener has played in big games before, and he’s taking on the challenge this week. “No one thinks we can win this game,” he told reporters. “I am gassed up. This is a big week for this program,” (247sports). 

Jeff Tedford and this Bulldogs program are certainly underdogs for a reason against a Top-10 team, but they have a ton of confidence heading into this matchup.

Over/Under analysis

Riley has seamlessly installed his offense in Southern California. The Trojans have put up over 500 total yards in both games this season, averaging 9.3 yards per play against Rice and 8.0 against Stanford. 

Fresno State had a 37% success rate on defense last season. The secondary remains mostly intact from a year ago when they shined at times with an impressive 26% success rate on passing downs.

It’s a unit that has played well in Mountain West conference play before only to be exposed against Power 5 competition, and that’s certainly a concern against Addison, Williams & Co. Chance Nolan and the Beavers found success a week ago when forced into passing situations, leaving a big concern for how the Bulldogs will contain the Trojans.

The Trojans are 2-0 to the Over this season, while the Bulldogs are 1-1. The Over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last four games against a team with a winning record and 19-6-1 in their last 26 games against the Pac-12. As for the Trojans, the Over is 7-0 in their last seven home games and 4-1 in their last five overall. 

This is a very high total, but it’s perhaps justified given the quality of both offenses. USC is averaging 53.5 points per game while Fresno is managing 33.5.

Fresno State vs USC game info

• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

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Fresno State vs USC betting trend to know

Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the Pac-12. Find more NCAA betting trends for Fresno State vs. USC.

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