Georgia State vs Appalachian State Odds, Picks and Predictions: A Georgia State of Mind

There’s midweek night action in the Fun Belt as the Georgia State Panthers head to Boone, North Carolina, to battle with the Appalachian State Mountaineers tonight.

It’s been a down start for both teams. The Panthers lost their first four games of the season but have rattled off two straight wins since, while the Mountaineers are already behind the eight ball having lost two conference games.

Both programs could use a win in a bad way Wednesday night. Which team will come away victorious? Let's dig in with our free college football picks and predictions for Georgia State vs. Appalachian State.

Georgia State vs Appalachian State best odds

Georgia State vs Appalachian State picks and predictions

App State appeared headed for another successful season after an early upset of Texas A&M. Fast forward to Week 8 and the Mountaineers have three losses through six games for the first time since 2014. A perennial Sun Belt contender, they most recently fell to lowly Texas State, leading to murmurings about Shawn Clark’s job security.

The Mountaineers were shorthanded against the Bobcats, missing running back Camerun Peoples, wide receiver Christian Wells, and two starting linebackers. Receiver Kaedin Robinson left the game with an injury as well, so it’s safe to say that this team is banged up.

Georgia State sputtered to an 0-4 start this year. You can’t fault them too much for dropping tough games against South Carolina, North Carolina, and Coastal Carolina in that span. Handing Charlotte (1-6) its lone win of the year, on the other hand, was unforgivable. Shawn Elliott’s squad has rebounded with two straight victories and is looking to prove that a rough non-conference schedule won’t have lasting effects in Sun Belt play.

Both teams are 2-4 against the spread this season and have been hard to trust. With a two-score pointspread, I’m inclined to lean toward the team catching points. The Panthers may have found their footing this year and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win and they’ve typically played well this time of year, going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games in October. Playing Elliott’s team in Sun Belt play has been a profitable venture of late, as they’re 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games. 

The Mountaineers have been trending in the opposite direction, going 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games. While Kidd Brewer Stadium is one of the most beautiful venues in the country, Clark’s squad hasn’t defended its home field well, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. 

Barring a last-second hail mary against Troy, App State would be 0-3 in conference play. This is not a team that should be laying Over 10 points.

My best bet: Georgia State +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Georgia State vs Appalachian State spread analysis

App State is a -10 favorite at most books, although -9.5 and -10.5 are also available as of the time of this writing. 

The Mountaineers most recently fell 36-24 to Texas State, marking their first loss to the Bobcats in seven meetings. App State won the total yardage battle 436-334 and gained 5.9 yards per play to Texas State’s 5.1, but still couldn’t grab the victory.

On the season, the Mountaineers are averaging 6.5 yards per play offensively led by Chase Brice at quarterback, who has thrown 18 touchdown passes to just three interceptions while averaging a robust 8.4 yards per attempt. The defense has been solid, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play.

Georgia State had a very difficult non-conference schedule. The Panthers lost to South Carolina in a game that was closer than the final score (35-14) indicated, hung close in a seven-point loss to North Carolina, and embarrassingly fell by one point to Charlotte despite winning the yardage battle 602-501.

Appalachian State is the better team on both sides of the ball, but the question is whether a two-score spread is warranted for a team with only two FBS wins (by a combined seven points) that is underperforming.

Georgia State vs Appalachian State Over/Under analysis

The total currently resides between 60.5 and 61.5 depending on the book.

When the Panthers have the ball, they’ll look to keep it on the ground with a rushing attack averaging 234.3 yards per game — the 13th-best mark in the nation. Quarterback Darren Grainger is a limited passer who needs to avoid making poor decisions and keep the ball safe. His primary utility is in the run game, where he’s added 303 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Two running backs, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, have eclipsed 400 yards this season. 

The Mountaineers have been more vulnerable defensively than in prior years, ranking 105th in defensive predicted pointed added (PPA) per play. The secondary has been a noticeable weakness, ranking 105th in Passing Success Rate, although the Panthers may not be able to capitalize on that weakness.

When App State has the ball, it will rely on Brice to make things happen. He’s been one of the best players in the Sun Belt and has put up prolific numbers despite losing his top three receivers from a year ago. Last week, Brice set a career-high in passing yards (395) and completions (40) in a loss. Georgia State’s defense has vulnerabilities, ranking 110th in passing success rate and 114th in rushing success rate.

Georgia State vs Appalachian State betting trend to know

The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia State vs. Appalachian State.

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