Georgia State vs Georgia Southern Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Eagles Fly Passed Panthers

We get a pivotal Sun Belt East battle as the Georgia State Panthers visit the Georgia Southern Eagles tonight.

The Panthers enter this matchup with a 6-1 record while the Eagles are 5-2. With each team already having a conference loss on their record, a win is a must in this matchup if either team has any hopes of keeping pace with the James Madison Dukes at the top of the division.

College football odds are expecting a tight game with Georgia Southern listed as a very slight favorite, but I’m not sure they’re giving the Eagles high-flying passing attack enough respect in this matchup.

Here are my free college football picks for Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern on October 26

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern best odds

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern picks and predictions

Georgia State enters this game obviously playing very well, with its only loss coming against Troy and its stout defense. However, this game against Georgia Southern could just be a bad matchup for the Panthers.

The Eagles enter this game with just two losses. One against an excellent and still undefeated James Madison program, and the other against Wisconsin.

Georgia Southern throws the ball more than anyone in the country, attempting nearly 50 passes per game. That has resulted in the Eagles ranked 12th in passing yards per game and 21st in total offense while putting up 32.3 points per game.

Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin has already thrown for 2,122 yards with 14 touchdowns while completing 67% of his passes. Now, Brin can take some risks. He has 11 interceptions for the season, but five of those came in a bit of a meltdown against Wisconsin. 

This Eagles offense is so hard to defend because Brin makes quick reads, and they're able to spread opposing defenses out with four reliable wideouts. The teams that have had to most success shutting down Brin and this Georgia Southern offense have been teams that can cover one-on-one and pressure the passer. Georgia State ain’t that. 

The Panthers rank 99th in EPA/pass and 90th in defensive success rate vs. the pass. That has resulted in 275.4 passing yards allowed per game: 122nd in the country. Georgia State also ranks 85th in sack rate and its front seven will be in tough against a veteran Eagles offensive line.

Now, the Georgia State offense is more balanced than Georgia Southern’s, but this is still a run-first scheme and that plays into the strength of the Eagles’ defense. Georgia State allows just 3.9 yards per carry this season and ranks a surprising 48th in defensive success rate.

If Brin can limit the mistakes, the Georgia Southern passing game vs. the Georgia State pass defense is the biggest edge in this game. And I’m not sure at the end of the day if the Panthers will be able to keep up with the Eagles. 

I’m not sure the oddsmakers got this one right. I’ll happily lay the 1.5 points with the home team in this matchup and would bet the Eagles up to -3.

My best bet: Georgia Southern -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern same-game parlay

Georgia Southern -1.5

Georgia Southern TT Over 32.5

Under 66.5

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+399 +598 at FanDuel

If the Eagles do manage to win this game, I’m betting it won’t be a defensive battle. This means I’m looking at their team total which is sitting at 32.5. Georgia Southern has scored 34 points or more in all five of its wins this season. The two times it was held below that number was in its losses to James Madison and Wisconsin — both in the Top 25 in opponent yards per play. Georgia State ranks 88th.

I mentioned that I’m not sure Georgia State will be able to keep up with Georgia Southern here, and may not do its part when it comes to the total. So, I’m going to bump the number up a bit and take the Under alternate total of 66.5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern spread and Over/Under analysis

Georgia Southern opened this Sun Belt battle as 2.5-point home chalk but it has been Georgia State who has seen the very early action, moving the number down to Eagles -1.5. As I mentioned above, not only do I disagree with the early money, but the oddsmakers as well. 

Georgia Southern has the biggest edge in this game with its passing game facing off against a Panthers' pass defense that has more holes than Swiss cheese.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 62, and early bettors like the Over, moving the number up to 63.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Georgia Southern should do its share of scoring, but I’m not sure Georgia State will do enough to send this Over. The Panthers are scoring just 24.5 points and the Under is 3-1 over their first four Sun Belt games this season. That’s enough for me to lean toward the Under for this big total.

Georgia State vs Georgia Southern betting trend to know

Georgia Southern is 3-0 ATS this season when favored at home by seven points or less. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia State vs Georgia Southern.

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