Georgia vs Alabama Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for Week 5

The best game of the season thus far takes place in Week 5 with Georgia heading to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in a showdown of two top-five teams.

In our Georgia vs. Alabama predictions, we’re expecting a close game between two of the sport's blue bloods. Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, September 28.

Georgia vs Alabama predictions

Early spread lean
Georgia -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The last time Georgia took the field, it had to fight tooth and nail to beat a struggling Kentucky program 13-12. That performance has everyone questioning the Bulldogs, so much so that their College Football Playoff odds have even lengthened.

But coming off a bye, I suspect Kirby Smart will have Georgia ready to go toe-to-toe with Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Although this spread has Georgia favored by 1.5, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this flips by kickoff on Saturday and Alabama is -1.5. Although, a pick’em is more likely between two equally matched top-tier programs.

And despite the Bulldogs’ poor play against the Wildcats in Week 3, I’m taking them to cover in a close win. Unlike the Crimson Tide, we’ve already seen Georgia play against a potential CFP team when it blew out Clemson 34-3 in Week 1.

That win had many doubting the Tigers to the point there were questions about whether or not the Dabo Swinney era would last much longer. Since then, Clemson has blown out Appalachian State and NC State and ranks 17th in SP+.

Meanwhile, this is an Alabama team that struggled for three quarters with South Florida — that 42-16 win is misleading, that game was 14-13 in the fourth quarter.

For as explosive as Kalen DeBoer’s offense is, he hasn’t had to deal with a defense like Georgia’s before and this is his first meaningful game as Nick Saban’s replacement. I expect Smart to unload on Jalen Milroe with his front seven.

It’s worth noting, Georgia has been without star pass rusher Mykel Williams since he got injured against Clemson. He’ll potentially be back in the fold with Jalon Walker, Georgia’s other first-round talent at edge rusher.

The Bulldogs rank third in SP+ on defense, and in a game featuring two of the best QBs in the country, I think Georgia’s front seven will make enough plays to win this one.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

While I ultimately believe Georgia’s defense is the difference, points will be scored in this matchup.

The Bulldogs are seventh in the country in SP+ on offense and the Crimson Tide are third. Milroe is the third-favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds for a reason, and Carson Beck is viewed as the potential No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

With the big play ability of freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams, Milroe’s going to hit a few deep plays over the top. And his mobility with the running back combo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes is scary for any defense.

But Alabama’s defense will have its hands full too. While Georgia will be down star guard Tate Ratledge, this is still one of the best offensive lines in the country and Trevor Etienne is as dynamic as almost any back in college football.

With Beck’s poise and accuracy, and Etienne’s ability to rip off chunk plays, Georgia’s offense will stay on time and in rhythm to hang points - as it did in the second half against Clemson.

And despite lacking a superstar pass catcher like Brock Bowers, Georgia’s deep at receiver and tight end. They run five-deep at wide receiver with Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, Dillon Bell, Colbie Young, and London Humphreys. Plus, Oscar Delp is one of the better tight ends in the country.

When you think Georgia and Alabama, you think defense, which is why this total is maybe a little lower than it should be. Both these teams have NFL-caliber QBs and a plethora of weapons.

I’d expect this total to jump up to as high as 50.5 by Saturday afternoon.

Georgia vs Alabama live odds

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