Georgia vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: No Early Fireworks in Week 12

One of four remaining undefeated teams in the country, the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs put their 10-0 record on the line when they visit the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon at Kroger Field.

The Wildcats began the season with a four-win streak, including an upset of then-No. 12 Florida, but have since stumbled through their conference schedule, with a 2-4 record over their last six.

Georgia is listed as a 22.5-point road favorite and has won 12 straight against its SEC East rival. The Wildcats last fell to the Bulldogs, 30-13, in Athens but held Georgia to just 14 points in a 14-3 defeat in Lexington back in 2020.

Do the Cats have any chance in a home date with the defending national champions? Below are our best college football picks and predictions for Georgia vs. Kentucky in Week 12.

Georgia vs Kentucky best odds

Georgia vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Kentucky has been up and down ever since it dropped its first loss of the season in a 22-19 heartbreaker at Mississippi. The Cats proceeded to lose their next game to unranked South Carolina, albeit without starting quarterback Will Levis, then bounced back to beat then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 27-17, at home.

A road matchup with Tennessee was an abysmal turnout for the Cats, who totaled 205 yards of offense in a 44-6 blowout.

But UK rebounded with a win at Missouri, behind a sharp performance by Levis, then suffered one of the program’s most shocking losses last Saturday to 4-6 Vanderbilt.

In the Commodores’ first win against an SEC opponent in 26 games, Kentucky surrendered 448 yards of offense, including 264 yards on the ground, in the 24-21 upset.

The ‘Dores defense also stepped up, recording four sacks and six tackles for loss while keeping Levis to 109 yards passing, with 11 completions on 23 attempts.

Will Levis passed for just 109 yards today in Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt.

The Kentucky QB hasn’t passed for over 200 yards since Week 7 ???? pic.twitter.com/nGClRyvtF6

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) November 12, 2022

Ahead of the matchup with Kentucky, Vanderbilt was allowing 36.8 points per game, the most in the SEC, but against the Wildcats, they held the offense to three field goals in the first three quarters and surrendered a pair of scores by running back Chris Rodriguez, both in the fourth.

Kentucky was just 4-for-12 on third down and lost the time of possession battle with Vandy after ranking eighth in the nation in average time of possession.

Georgia ranks seventh in that category and will make life difficult for a Kentucky defense that let Vanderbilt run all over it.

The Bulldogs are coming off a dominant 45-19 win at Mississippi State in which the rushing attack averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and reached paydirt three times.

The Georgia defense also held Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense to 261 yards through the air and one passing touchdown, with Will Rogers completing 29 of 51 passes.

The Bulldogs once again own one of the top defenses in the nation, with only Michigan allowing fewer points per game.

Meanwhile, Kentucky ranks third in the SEC in points allowed and has kept teams to 24 points or fewer, save for the 44 points scored by Tennessee, the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation.

After the way Levis and his offensive line struggled against Vanderbilt, you can expect an even tougher outing against a far better defense in Georgia.

But Kentucky will hang around on the other side of the ball, giving quarterback Stetson Bennett a much steeper challenge than Mississippi State. The Cats rank 16th in the nation in passing yards surrendered (182) and will force Georgia to stay low to the ground to move the chains.

The Bulldogs will find their way to the end zone, but they’ll burn a lot of clock to get there, resulting in another low-scoring battle with the Cats, who will struggle to get points against one of the top scoring defenses in the country.

My best bet: First half Under 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Georgia vs Kentucky spread analysis

Coming off their first national title win since 1980, the Bulldogs remain a force in college football and are favored to repeat as national champions.

While they own a 10-0 record, the Bulldogs are just 6-4 against the spread this season, the same mark as Kentucky, but as the away team, Georgia is 2-1 ATS, while Kentucky is 3-3 ATS at Kroger Field.

The Bulldogs are a similar 6-4 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Kentucky but have failed to cover against the Cats in their last three.

Following a near-loss to Missouri back on Oct. 1, however, Georgia has gone 4-1 ATS in its last five games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven versus teams with a winning record.

Kentucky is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 games facing teams with a winning record and 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.

The spread opened at 22.5 and has remained steady throughout the week, but Georgia has not won by a margin greater than 22 points against Kentucky since a 29-point victory back in 2017, when the Bulldogs trounced UK 42-13 in Athens.

In the four games since, Georgia has won by an average margin of 16.5 points, with the Bulldogs’ closest win coming two seasons ago, in the 14-3 decision at Kroger Field.

Georgia vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened between 48.5 and 49.5 at most sportsbooks and has settled at 49.

Georgia’s last four games have seen the Bulldogs average 42.3 points per contest against Vanderbilt, Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, with three of those four defenses (Tennessee the exception) ranking in the bottom half of the SEC in points allowed. 

Kentucky should pose more of a test for Georgia and has held the Bulldogs to 30, 14, and 21 points in their last three head-to-head matchups.

Kentucky’s offense, on the other hand, has averaged just 16 points per outing in its last three — against Tennessee, Missouri, and Vanderbilt — so scoring should be hard to come by against Georgia’s domineering stop unit.

The Under is 6-4 in the last 10 matchups between these teams and 3-0 in the last three, while the Under has hit in four of the Bulldogs’ last five road games, and it’s 8-3-1 in Georgia’s last 12 games overall.

The Under is 7-0 in Kentucky’s last seven versus a team with a winning record and 10-1 in UK’s last 11 games overall, while the Under has hit in six of Kentucky’s last seven home games, and it’s 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Georgia vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Under is 10-1 in the Wildcats' last 11 games overall and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia vs. Kentucky.

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