Saturday will see a game with massive SEC and College Football Playoff implications when the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Oxford for a showdown with the Mississippi Rebels, and you won't want to miss my Georgia vs. Mississippi predictions.
The Dawgs know a loss could severely hinder their shot at the SEC Championship game, while the Rebels know a third defeat could see their hopes at reaching the CFP go on life support. I break down my early leans and college football picks for what should be a terrific matchup of two high-level defenses.
Georgia vs Mississippi predictions
Early spread lean
Mississippi +2.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Looking at the Georgia Bulldogs’ results this season, there’s been a fair amount of luck involved in the Dawgs getting to 7-1 on the season. They struggled to beat Kentucky, and had the Wildcats had anything even attempting to resemble a competent offense, they would’ve gotten the upset win at home.
In its win over Texas, Georgia benefitted from the worst performance of the season by the Longhorns and rode Trevor Etienne on offense. Texas fumbled the ball three times in its loss and had its worst third-down performance of the season, converting just two of 15 attempts. Aside from that game, the Longhorns have converted on better than half of their third downs this season.
And this past weekend against Florida, the Dawgs trailed 13-6 at the half. They were able to overcome Carson Beck’s three picks — giving him eight in Georgia’s last three games — and get the comeback win. Still, it was tied late in the fourth quarter despite Florida having a third-string quarterback in for more than half the contest.
This Mississippi Rebels team has a defense that can not only give Beck fits, but an offense that could light up the scoreboard. The Rebels made a statement against Arkansas on both sides of the ball, getting an early defensive touchdown while Jaxson Dart and Jordan Watkins connected for five touchdowns with Tre Harris sidelined with an injury.
The Rebels lead the nation in sacks, notching eight against Arkansas, and they’re going to hound Beck. They’re also dominating the line of scrimmage in SEC play, averaging 10.2 tackles for loss per conference outing. That’s bad news for a Georgia line that hasn’t been spectacular at opening up holes for the run game, especially with Etienne having left the Florida game due to an injury.
Mississippi doesn’t turn the ball over much, and if Harris is back in the lineup, then Georgia will have to cover two outstanding receivers. As good as the Dawgs have been defensively, they’ve been prone to the big pass play. This defense struggled with Ryan Williams, and Mississippi presents a similar offensive attack with perhaps a better defense.
Mississippi has allowed only 3.0 yards per carry in SEC play, the third-best mark in the conference. LSU ran 24 times and gained only 84 yards and beat the Rebels on the back of Garrett Nussmeier making key plays in crunch time. I don’t trust Beck to replicate that. Georgia not only fails to cover, but loses outright.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 55.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Georgia’s defense has been solid this season, but Mississippi is playing on another level right now. The Rebels rank eighth nationally in defensive success, and seventh in success against the run. They also are seventh in early down success rate, and opponents are averaging 8.83 yards to gain on third down attempts which is the most in college football.
Beck’s turnover issues and inconsistent play is a big reason why I like the Under here. Georgia’s middle of the road in passing EPA, and his performances this season against good defenses have left something to be desired. Against Florida, Texas, Alabama, and Kentucky, the Georgia quarterback has thrown a total of five touchdowns compared to nine interceptions.
Those four teams also held Beck to a completion rate of just 58%, well below his season mark of 65.5%. And in his road games against Texas and Kentucky, Beck threw for just 335 yards on 65 pass attempts. Georgia will not be able to find running success here, which limits its ability to put points on the board with Beck’s inconsistent play.
While the Rebels looked outstanding last week, the big plays won’t be as readily available against Georgia. While Dart should find his guys downfield, sustaining long drives will be tough. The Dawgs lead the SEC in third down defense, allowing a 28.4% conversion rate to conference opponents. And Mississippi has the second-worst rushing average of any team in conference play.
Mississippi has struggled inside the 20 this season, a big reason it lost to Kentucky and LSU. The Rebels have just 12 touchdowns from 23 red zone visits in SEC play, while Georgia’s punched it in on 18 of 26 trips. But both defenses rank in the top half of the SEC, each allowing touchdowns on just 56.25% of their opponents’ visits inside the 20.
Points will be at a premium here, and the total going up a point since opening is something I’ll happily take advantage of. I lean Under in this one, as I simply don’t trust Georgia’s offense to get past 20 points.
Georgia vs Mississippi live odds
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