Hawaii vs Vanderbilt Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Sheppard Picks Apart Rainbow Warriors

The SEC’s tribute to kick off the 2023 season is the Vanderbilt Commodores. Clark Lea’s squad hosts the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in Week 0 action to satiate fans’ appetite after a long offseason.

These two squads also faced off in Week 0 a year ago, with Lea giving Timmy Chang a tough welcome to his FBS coaching career in a 63-10 blowout win for Vandy on the island. 

We’re headed back to the mainland this year, but it’s expected to be a bit closer this time around. Looking at NCAAF odds, Vanderbilt's college football odds are -17.5 at most locations. 

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks and predictions for Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt on Saturday, August 26 

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt best odds

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt picks and predictions

Hawaii was a disaster in the first year under Timmy Chang a year ago. It finished with a 3-10 record while both the offense (19.8 PPG) and defense (34.7 PPG) struggled, but that was to be expected as Chang had a complete rebuild on his hands after the previous head coach, Todd Graham, left this program and roster in shambles following his melodramatic exit. 

There‘s hope for improvement in Year 2 as the offense returns an experienced quarterback, Brayden Schager, while transitioning to what will allegedly be a truer version of the Run and Shoot, while the defense returns nine starters. It’s evident that improvement is expected considering the Rainbow Warriors lost 63-10 at home to Vanderbilt last year, but is just +17.5 on the road this time around.

As for Vanderbilt, Clark Lea’s squad went 5-7 a year ago and recently signed the second-highest recruiting class in program history, so one could say there’s reason for optimism in Nashville as well. Oddsmakers don’t see it that way, however, setting their win total at just 3.5 for this season. 

The offense returns seven starters including its top three wide receivers and four starters up front. Quarterback AJ Swann, a former 4-star recruit, got some reps last year while splitting time, but will be the main guy this season after Mike Wright transferred to Mississippi State. 

The Commodores’ defense returns eight starters but must show improvement after ranking 125th in EPA per play a year ago. The depth in the trenches is fine so they should be solid against the rush again after finishing 25th in EPA per rush. The real questions begin with a secondary that was atrocious last year, ranking 120th in EPA per pass and 125th in passing success rate. 

I believe that both teams should find success throwing the ball in this contest. I forecast both to be more pass-happy this season — Hawaii as it transitions to a truer Run and Shoot and Vanderbilt with its top three receivers back, now playing a full-time pocket passer, and losing last year’s 1,000-yard rusher to the transfer portal. 

There are a few player props that I believe are mispriced due to my handicap as outlined above. Player props are not always widely available in college football but they can be a good way to stack up ROI when they are offered. My favorite one on the board for this matchup is Vandy wide receiver Will Sheppard to go Over his receiving yardage total of 58.5. 

Hawaii just wasn’t good defensively last year, ranking 118th in EPA per play and 112th in success rate. The secondary was poor in coverage (115th in EPA per pass) and the front seven generated almost no pressure, checking in at 126th in HAVOC. Swann is a talented passer and has an experienced receiver room to throw to, so I expect them to cook in this matchup. 

Sheppard is the best player on the Vandy roster after posting 60 receptions for 776 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago. Those numbers will go up this season with a pass-first quarterback and as the run game takes a step back with an unproven running back room and an offensive line that is better in pass protection than run blocking. If Hawaii improves this year as forecasted, that will only help this prop as that would mean this game should stay within a reasonable score while the offenses trade chunk yardage.

My best bet: Will Sheppard Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay

Over 55.5 (-110)

Hawaii Team Total Over 16.5 (-150)

+140 at DraftKings

It looks like you’re unable to use player props for an SGP in this contest currently, which is unfortunate because I’d be all over a combination of passing-game Overs for both sides. No matter though, I’ve cobbled together a two-legger that I like for Saturday. 

The first leg will feature the full-game Over of 55.5. I don’t trust either defense as both were very poor last season — Hawaii was 118th in EPA per Play and surrendered 63 points to this Vanderbilt program, while the Commodores were 125th in EPA per play, despite playing Under a defensive-minded head coach in Lea. 

Hawaii is in Year 2 and should be more comfortable in the system. This is not a difficult matchup against a Commodores defense with a ton to prove, so I’ll add Hawaii’s team total Over 16.5 as the second leg of this SGP. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt spread and Over/Under analysis

Current NCAAF odds list Vanderbilt as -17.5 at home while the total is set at 55.5 across the board. 

I’ve personally seen a lot of love on the Hawaii side, as folks are forecasting a big improvement in Year 2 under Chang. I understand that sentiment but personally, I can’t get there, as there’s a lot of narrative in that handicapping and little proof in the pudding. 

Hawaii wasn’t just bad last year — it was terrible on both sides of the ball. The Rainbow Warriors were 117th in EPA per play on offense and 118th in EPA per Play on defense. The strength of the team was an offensive line that ranked 12th in Line Yards and 10th in Stuff Rate, but lost four of their top six linemen. That unit now goes from the team’s only strength to a huge question mark. 

Vandy was no world-beater last season, but they had a stark contrast in that they competed with teams they weren’t at a total talent disadvantage against, but were blown out by teams that were simply on another level. They beat both Kentucky and Florida, and the losses to South Carolina and Missouri were by a combined 14 points. We saw the beatdown they put on Hawaii last year, and they won two other non-conference games against Elon and NIU. It was the elite teams that made Vandy look bad — the Commodores lost to Bama, Georgia, and Tennessee by a combined score of 166-3.

I’m not confident enough in either side and therefore simply lean with the home team, especially if it gets to the key number of 17. I understand folks who bought Hawaii at +18.5 but the more the line comes in, the less value there is if that’s what your numbers tell you.

I do like the Over 55.5 as outlined above in the SGP section, considering both teams should be able to throw the ball.

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know

Vanderbilt has hit their team total Over in nine of its last 12 games for a 39% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt.

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