Houston vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: AAC Fireworks Kick Week 6 Off

It was the Houston Cougars who were supposed to be a team that challenged for the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. 

Inconsistent and sloppy play has resulted in a slow start for Dana Holgorsen’s squad and at this point, the Cougars’ opponent this week, the Memphis Tigers, have a much better shot at that big bowl game appearance.

The Tigers have rattled off four wins in a row and quarterback Seth Henigan looks to build off a strong freshman season. Can he outgun Clayton Tune and the Cougars’ passing attack — and put the total in trouble? 

I’ll break it all down and give you my best bet in college football picks and predictions for this AAC clash between Houston and Memphis.

Houston vs Memphis best odds

Houston vs Memphis picks and predictions

The year for Houston began full of high hopes and big expectations. But those have quickly faded.

Houston survived a season-opening scare from UTSA, defeating the Roadrunners in overtime, but it was a precursor of things to come. Losses to Big 12 teams Texas Tech and Kansas aren’t unreasonable but losing to Tulane in overtime at home, when the Green Wave were starting their third-string quarterback, is a cause for concern. 

Clayton Tune looks like he has taken a bit of a step back, while Nathaniel Dell hasn’t been the difference maker that has been expected, but it’s the defense that has been the real problem. 

The fabled “Sack Avenue” hasn’t gotten enough pressure on the opposing quarterback this season. They have allowed more than 300 yards passing in three of their five games and rank 114th in passing yards per game. 

Now, they have to deal with Memphis sophomore Seth Henigan. The sophomore signal-caller has picked up where he left off after a solid true freshman season, throwing for 1,276 yards with nine touchdowns compared with just one interception. 

They spread you out with Gabriel Rogers, Eddie Lewis, and Javon Ivory. Six-foot-6 tight end Caden Prieskorn is a mismatch for anyone and already has five touchdowns this season. 

While that offense has led the Tigers to four straight wins, the defense hasn’t held on to its end of the bargain, specifically the secondary, which has been torched to this point and ranks 123rd in passing yards allowed per game. That has not come against particularly strong competition.

Despite Tune and Dell’s inconsistencies for far this season, I still believe in their talent. Heck, they have connected for 453 yards and five scores already this season and it has somehow felt a little underwhelming.

This game could be a really fun way to start the week. I expect both quarterbacks to have success in this matchup and send this game Over the total. 

My best bet: Over 57.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Houston vs Memphis spread analysis

This line hit the board with Memphis as a 3-point home favorite but if wasn’t for Houston’s inconsistent play, I might be tempted to take the Cougars getting a field goal because, on paper, they look like the better team. But that’s why they play the games.

Unfortunately, they have been that inconsistent. The Cougars are just 2-3 on the season, despite being favored by at least 3.5 points in four of their five games. The last two have been the worst so far. Needing a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Rice as 17-point home favorites then losing outright to Tulane laying 5-points at home. A Tulane team that was down to its third-string quarterback, mind you.

So, why not lay the field goal with the home team that has won four straight games you ask? Well, this Memphis team hasn’t really been tested since a 49-23 loss to Mississippi State in its opener. The Tigers gave up 450 yards passing in that game and have given up 32 and 34 points to Arkansas State and North Texas.

If there is a team Houston could get right against it might be Memphis. So, I’ll stay away from the side and cheer for plenty of points. 

Houston vs Memphis Over/Under analysis

Speaking of that, as I said, this total of 57.5 seems a little light for this matchup. For starters, Memphis should be able to move the ball through the air against this Cougars secondary that is also still a little banged up. They are averaging 34 points per game this season and have cashed the Over four times in their five games.

Meanwhile, Houston is averaging 31 points per game this season, but that has been aided by their three overtime games. Their regulation average is a more mediocre 25.8 points per game. Tune and Dell should be able to get closer to that 31 number going against this Tigers pass defense.

As noted, the Memphis pass defense has struggled, giving up 288 yards per game. That includes games against a really bad Temple team and a Navy team that does not throw the ball. So, basically, they have been picked apart in their three other games. 

I think both teams hit the 30-point mark in this one.

Houston vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Over is 19-7 in Houston's last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 in Memphis' last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Memphis.

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