The first total north of 80 of the college football season is on the board this week with oddsmakers setting the Over/Under line at 85 for the Big 12 battle between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.**video
If the total, which opened at 81, holds until kickoff at 85 it’ll be among the highest closing totals in college football betting over the last seven seasons. BetOnline.com oddsmaker Dave Mason says his shop has seen over 70 percent of the total bets on the Over.
And while an 80-point or higher total is rare for most teams, it no big news for Texas Tech backers. Oddsmakers have tossed 80-point or larger totals 13 times at the Red Raiders since 2011 with the Over cashing in nine of those games.
There have been 27 times a college football game total has closed at 80 or higher since 2011 and 13 of those cases involved Texas Tech. Only nine of those 27 games with the eye-catchingly high Over/Under lines didn’t involve a Big 12 team.
“Twenty years ago, 70 was a very high total for college football,” Covers Expert Ted Sevransky says. “Now we routinely see totals in the low 80s and we even saw a 90.5 for Texas Tech – Baylor in 2015.”
The data tells us you’re not going to find the super high totals in any games involving ACC or SEC teams, and only one Big Ten game made the list. For giant totals you have to look at the Pac-12 and particularly the Big 12.
“It’s really about pace of play,” Sportsbook.ag oddsmaker Peter Childs told Covers. “These teams are about no huddle, just get lined up and snap the ball. They want to run as many offensive plays as possible, so that pace of play creates more scoring opportunities and higher totals.”
This year is a down year in terms of pace for the Red Raiders. Last season they were second in the country at 88.3 offensive plays per game, but this year they're down to 22nd in the nation at 80.3. Oklahoma State averaged 76 plays per game last year and is down to 72 this campaign. Both Texas Tech and Okie State are in the top six scoring offenses in 2017 with both sides averaging more than 46 points per game.
"I don't do much with the very high totals unless I'm confident that one offense is going to get shut down," Sevransky says. "It's frustrating as hell to have a game where both offenses move the ball all game, both teams score more than five TDs and the game still doesn't get Over 80+ points. Not my definition of value. I tend to 'pass' on the vast majority of totals in this range."
The Over is 16-12 in the 28 games involving 80-point or larger totals since the start of the 2011 season.
Here’s a quick look at the four largest Over/Under lines in college football since 2011.
Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears
Week 8, 2016
Total: 90 points
Final score: 52-49
One of the worst year’s in Oregon’s recent history came a year ago when its offense couldn’t outscore the points its defense was giving up. The Ducks surrendered 42.6 points per game in 2016 and Cal averaged the fourth-most offensive plays per game at 87.7 in 2016.
Still, the game wouldn’t have resulted in an Over had overtime not been needed. The two sides combined for 17 points in the extra period.
Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Week 5, 2015
Total: 89.5 points
Final score: 63-35
The last year of the Art Briles era produced some Playstation-like numbers for the Bears. Baylor had scored 56 or more points in each of its three games before playing the Red Raiders in Week 5.
The two sides scored 70 points by halftime and finished the game with 1316 combined offensive yards. The over was secured at the 11:57 mark in the fourth quarter when Baylor’s Corey Coleman caught a 16-yard touchdown pass from Seth Russell to push the lead to 63-28 for the Bears.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears
Week 14, 2012
Total: 88
Final score: 41-34
This game was the third time bookmakers hung an 80 or higher point total on Baylor in the 2012 season and for good reason. They were part of a 133-point game with West Virginia in Week 5 and a 97-point game with Texas Tech the week before this game.
In the end, the Cowboys kept this game from going over the total by only scoring 34 points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Week 11, 2016
Total: 87.5
Final score: 45-44
Are you noticing the pattern here? A lot of Big 12 conference games filling up our list. This was one of the best games of last season with the Cowboys securing the win 45-44 by way of a Quinton White TD run in the final two minutes.
