Georgia vs Alabama Player Props & Best Bets: Robinson Finds Paydirt in Vaunted Rivalry

Prop bet #1: Branson Robinson anytime touchdown

+400 at BetMGM

Who leads Georgia in rushing touchdowns? Who scored the go-ahead score against Kentucky in that low-scoring misery two weeks ago? Who is the most physical ball carrier in the Bulldogs’ backfield?

His name is Branson Robinson.

Why is the running back trailing Trevor Etienne (-140), Nate Frazier (+320), and quarterback Carson Beck (+350) in these odds? In part, because it is mispriced, trading on names more than evidence, and in part because Etienne took 19 carries in his only meaningful game this season, while Robinson had just a pair of rushes two weeks ago at Kentucky.

Betting on Robinson is in part a bet on Alabama standing up to Georgia’s passing game, logical given the Tide’s ranks as the best defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.

Alabama is not as stout against the run, particularly in allowing meager gains. Opponents succeed on 36.4% of their rush attempts against the Tide, No. 46 in the country, the closest thing to an Alabama defensive weakness at this point. If Georgia finds itself inside the 10-yard line, it should turn to its most physical runner.

Prop bet #2: Dillon Bell Under 34.5 receiving yards

-115 at BetMGM

Alabama’s passing defense should dictate this game. Opponents fall behind the chains nearly three-quarters of the time when they drop back. Georgia cannot afford that kind of struggle, so it may pivot to its run game a good amount and try to shorten this game in prototypical Kirby Smart fashion.

Fewer dropbacks will come at the expense of the Bulldogs’ No. 3 receiver Dillon Bell. He has fallen short of this prop in both of Georgia’s FBS games this season, including managing just one grab at Kentucky two weeks ago.

In just those two paragraphs, we rattled off three reasons to believe in this Under. Alabama’s pass defense is stifling, so Georgia may try to lean on the run and lessen everybody’s chances at big plays. Meanwhile, Bell has struggled to produce in quantity thus far this season.

Prop bet #3: Jalen Milroe Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

+110 at BetMGM

Casual football fans may be surprised by Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer’s rise. If not following along for a while, then all some may see is four years as a head coach — two at Fresno State and two at Washington — and suddenly he is in charge of the most successful program of the 21st century.

But that misses some of DeBoer’s magnificent work, turning Indiana into an efficient offense, putting together one of the best offenses we have ever seen last year at Washington, and let’s not overlook winning three NAIA national championships when he was barely a decade out of college.

The consistent trait throughout DeBoer’s career has been precise downfield passing attacks. That was always a strength of Jalen Milroe’s, leading what some deemed the “dink-and-bomb” offense last season. In basketball terms, Milroe is best at dunks and 3-pointers.

That has already led to eight touchdowns this year, including three explosive scores two weeks ago against Wisconsin.

Betting this prop is putting some faith in DeBoer to scheme up some good looks for Milroe, but DeBoer has earned that faith — and Milroe has earned the trust that he will convert a couple of them.