The Idaho State Bengals come to Sin City to take on the UNLV Rebels, and both teams have a lot to prove this year.
UNLV finished 2-10 last season and is expected to improve in Head Coach Marcus Arroyo’s third season. The Bengals finished 1-10 and are picked to end this year in last place in the Big Sky Conference.
The Rebels are big favorites and will be looking to win a season opener for the first time since 2016. Can the Rebels buck that trend and cover 21.5 points against Idaho State, or will the Bengals keep it within three touchdowns?
Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Idaho State vs. UNLV on August 27.
Idaho State vs UNLV odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho State | +25 | Over 52 (-110) | OTB |
| UNLV | -25 | Under 52 (-110) | OTB |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of August 26, 2022
The Rebels opened as 21.5-point favorites but the line has moved down to 20.5. The Bengals are +850 on the moneyline while the Rebels are -1667. The total began at 51.5 and has moved to 52.0, with the Over priced at -107 and the Under at -114.
Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Idaho State vs UNLV predictions
Predictions made on 8/25/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Idaho State vs UNLV game info
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, August 27, 2021
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Idaho State vs UNLV betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Key injuries
Idaho State: No key injuries to report.
UNLV: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UNLV is 6-2 all time in the series between the two teams, and won the last contest 80-8 in 2015. Find more NCAA betting trends for Idaho State vs. UNLV.
Idaho State vs UNLV picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It is safe to say Marcus Arroyo's head coaching job at UNLV will be in jeopardy if the team doesn’t vastly improve from its awful 2-10 record. A good way to impress his boss would be leading the Rebels over Idaho State.
The Bengals have a new coach who has never been in the top spot at the collegiate level. Charlie Ragle made his reputation in the high school ranks and was the special teams coach at Cal before accepting the Idaho State job. He inherits a team that went 1-10 last season and has no impact players that can make a difference on either side of the ball.
Ragle also hasn’t announced who his starting quarterback will be on Saturday. His first option is Tyler Vander Waal, who threw two touchdowns and three interceptions last year in three games before getting injured and missing the rest of the season.
Choice two is Hunter Hays, who took over for Vander Waal and had a completion rate of only 55%. He was 93 of 169 for 1,091 yards and also had more interceptions than touchdowns in 2021.
Whoever is behind center is going to have to be an escape artist. The offensive line gave up 39 sacks last season, and there haven’t been any noticeable upgrades. The wide receiving corps for the Bengals is mostly unproven, considering the top two receivers are gone.
They won’t be able to count on the running game either. The team’s leading rushers, Tyevin Ford and Malakai Rango entered the transfer portal. Ragle brought in a couple of unproven backs, so it remains to be seen what they can do. The offensive line will also have trouble blocking, especially against a bigger, more physical defensive line like UNLV.
Last year, Idaho State averaged 122 rushing yards a game, 10th in the conference. UNLV has issues on offense as well, but Arroyo certainly moved to solve them in the offseason. First is quarterback, where Redshirt sophomore Doug Brumfield and sophomore transfer Harrison Bailey are his choices.
As of Thursday, Arroyo hadn’t made a decision. Brumfield was injured most of the season, only playing in three games. In those games, he was 17 of 39 for 320 yards and two touchdowns to one interception. Bailey comes from Tennessee, where he appeared in one game in 2021 with the Volunteers.
Bailey is the better passer and has plenty of options to throw to, including wide receivers Kyle Williams and Zyell Griffin. With four starters on the offensive line returning, they should be able to give Bailey or Brumfield time to throw.
Expect the Rebels to pick apart the Bengals' defense on Saturday in the desert.
Prediction: UNLV -20.5 (-109 BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
Neither team was effective at stopping opponents from scoring last season. Idaho State allowed an average of 34 points a game, with most of the games coming in the FCS Big Sky Conference.
UNLV was no better, as the Rebels allowed an average of 33. The Rebels or Bengals didn’t score a whole lot of points, either. The Bengals put up just 15 a game, while the Rebels finished with 21.
While I expect Idaho State to stay close to last year’s offensive stats on Saturday, I believe UNLV will be far more productive offensively. It won’t be like the lopsided score in 2015 when the two teams met, but I could easily see the Rebels scoring two touchdowns a quarter.
At that point, it won’t matter what the Bengals do when they have the ball.
Prediction: Over 52 (-107 at Unibet)
Best bet
Taking UNLV on the moneyline is a no-brainer. Couple that with the Over, and I will jump on this plus money wager.
UNLV is facing a completely overwhelmed Idaho State team that had trouble stopping far inferior opponents last year and lost any impact players that could have helped them this time around.
The Rebels now have a premier passer in Bailey, who I believe will start on Saturday. The offensive line, which is bigger and stronger than Bengals defenders, will also give Bailey time to find several quality targets and deep threats.
I also believe Arroyo learned from the Eastern Washington game. It will take a couple of series for UNLV to get into a rhythm, but the Rebels are going to score and score often.
Look for a barrage of points in the second half as Idaho State will be exhausted from getting pushed around the field.
Pick: UNLV moneyline and Over 52 points (+102 at Unibet)
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