Illinois vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverines' Second-Half Dominance Continues

The Michigan Wolverines look to keep their undefeated season rolling with a Week 12 home date with the Illinois Fighting Illini.

This week presents the Wolverines with a final opportunity to fine-tune their game ahead of the biggest test of their season — a Week 13 matchup at No. 2 Ohio State. Meanwhile, Illinois has dropped back-to-back games as favorites after starting the season 7-1. 

Michigan has been a dominant force all season long and our college football picks and predictions break down why that should continue Saturday afternoon.

Illinois vs Michigan best odds

Illinois vs Michigan picks and predictions

Considering how utterly dominant they've been in Big Ten play, the Michigan Wolverines are looking more and more like a team that can replicate last year's victory over Ohio State — and much of that dominance has come in the second half. 

Beyond Michigan's insane defensive resume that includes nation-best marks in scoring defense (11.2), yards per game (232.8), and yards per play (3.8), Michigan has allowed a grand total of three second-half points in its last five games... that's four scoreless halves and just three points allowed to No. 10 Penn State.

That smothering defense allows Michigan to dominate possession (third in TOP), control the game with one of the best offensive lines in the nation, and pound the ball with the best running back in college football in Blake Corum. The results? A second-half point differential of +117 over those five contests and more importantly: a 5-0 record against second-half spreads.

This week, the Wolverines welcome a solid-but-now-slumping Illinois squad. After looking like it might be in control of the Big Ten West, Illinois has lost back-to-back games to Michigan State and Purdue, and things certainly won't get easier for them in The Shoe. 

The Fighting Illini rank fourth in scoring defense at just 13.9 points allowed per game but have mostly held down poor offenses and allowed 31 points to Purdue just last week. Michigan's offense — more specifically, the run game — will prove a tougher test and should have no problem inflicting standard damage at home. 

Illinois is certainly a step up in competition relative to the Big Ten bottom-feeders Michigan has been feasting on of late, but there's still a sizable gap between Ohio State, Michigan, and the rest of the conference, and I'm not sure the 18-point spread at home is doing that gap justice.

However, I'm backing the Wolverines against the single-digit second-half spread for my best bet. Once Michigan gets control of this game, the lead will only continue to grow. 

My best bet: Michigan second half -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Illinois vs Michigan spread analysis

College football odds have the Wolverines slated as an 18-point home favorite with -17.5 available at some sportsbooks. 

You don't have to look beyond Michigan's ATS record to see just how dominant this team has been in recent weeks: 4-1-1 ATS with an average spread hovering around -20 through those six contests. 

Illinois is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS on the season but is fresh off back-to-back outright losses at home vs. Michigan State (16.5-point fav) and Purdue (6.5-point fav), bringing what looked to be a strong season to a screeching halt. 

Running back Chase Brown is the star of this team, leading the nation with 1,442 rushing yards in addition to 10 total touchdowns. However, the offense is averaging just 24 points per game (83rd) and ranks 89th in yards per play. 

The defense is what allowed this team to start 7-1, but even that has looked vulnerable, allowing 54 points over its last two games (both losses). I have no problem laying the points with Michigan here. 

Illinois vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

These two Big Ten squads have a combined Over/Under record of 6-13-1 and as such, the total has dropped from the opening number of 43.5 down to a measly 41.5 points.

That makes sense when considering we're dealing with two of the Top-4 scoring defenses and while Michigan may be an offensive powerhouse, can we be sure Illinois will be able to contribute enough to help get this Over?

Thanks to these premier defenses, six of Illinois' last eight games have stayed below this number, while four of Michigan's last six have done the same.

Once Michigan builds a lead, the clock will seldomly stop as the Wolverines pound the ball on the ground with Corum and Donovan Edwards. I'd lean towards the Under if needed but will most likely stay away from this low total.

Illinois vs Michigan betting trend to know

Michigan has covered the second-half spread in five straight games, outscoring its opponents 120-3 in those later frames. Find more NCAA betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan.

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