The Big Ten slate kicks into gear in Week 4 as the Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers square off Friday night in prime time.
Both teams sit at 3-0 and look to claim their conference opener, and all eyes — including our Illinois vs. Nebraska predictions — will be on Nebraska’s young quarterback Dylan Raiola as he faces a stout Illinois defense.
Here are our early leans and college football picks for Friday night’s clash between Illinois and Nebraska!
Illinois vs Nebraska predictions
Early spread lean
Illinois +9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are laying 9.0 points and that’s a bit too much.
The Huskers’ defense has played well, allowing just 211 rushing yards through three games.
But they also played a Colorado team that can't run the ball, a UTEP team that has struggled on the ground, and an FCS team in Northern Iowa. And the Huskers have faced a rush play rate of just 38.7%, the fifth-lowest mark in college football.
As well as Nebraska’s defense has played, it has just an 11% stuff rate against running plays. More worrisome is the 3.2 line yards per rush allowed.
The Illinois Fighting Illini will present an entirely different challenge. The Fighting Illini are averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, but the underlying metrics indicate they’re performing better than the raw data shows. They’re averaging 3.2 line yards per rush, but simply aren’t finding explosive plays at a high rate.
That said, 3.4 yards a carry on a consistent basis is enough to move the chains, and this Illinois offensive line is more than capable of opening holes. More importantly, focusing on the run will help slow down the elite Nebraska pass rush. The Illini have allowed sacks on 8.5% of their passing plays, ranking them in the 100s nationally.
Illinois will also be the first true test for quarterback Dylan Raiola. The freshman quarterback has been outstanding so far for Nebraska, but the Illini intercepted Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels three times and took the ball away from him via a fumble as well.
Nebraska’s going to be tested and I expect them to pass. But I like this one to be much closer than the nine-point spread, and I’m leaning toward taking Illinois and the points.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The easiest way to help Raiola will be by running the ball, and Nebraska should find success on the ground. The Huskers have similar metrics to those of Illinois, with their line generating 3.4 yards per rush and a stuff rate of only 8% when they hand it off.
And similar to the Illini, they’ve yet to enjoy many explosive plays on the ground. Nebraska is averaging just 4.5 yards per carry, with Dante Dowdell rushing for 74 yards on 17 carries in the Huskers’ only game against a Power 4 opponent.
When Raiola does throw, he’s likely going to face stiffer resistance than he has so far. The Illini are allowing just a 54.1% completion rate to their opponents, and have a 42% success rate on standard downs. They’ve also allowed just five yards per pass attempt, 18th-best in the country.
These defenses are both allowing fewer than 2.5 points per opportunity. That means they’re limiting teams to a field goal or less on average when their opponents breach their 40-yard line.
On top of that, Illinois and Nebraska each have outstanding PPA marks on defense. Illinois sits with a 0.013 PPA on all snaps, and just 0.027 on pass plays. while Nebraska’s posted a 0.03 PPA on defense.
I expect a low-scoring affair, as both teams look to establish the run and limit big plays on defense. Consider yourself fortunate if you got the total at 46.5 when it opened, but I still lean Under at the current number of 43.5 points, though I’m not sure I’d go much lower.
Illinois vs Nebraska live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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