Illinois vs Nebraska prediction
My best bet
Nebraska moneyline and Under 48.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There's been a lot to like about the start of this Nebraska season. Not only are the Cornhuskers 3-0, including a beatdown of Colorado, but freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has been as advertised.
Raiola heads into this week’s game against Illinois having thrown for 670 yards with five touchdowns compared to just one interception, while completing 74% of his passes.
But Matt Rhule’s best work with this team might be in the trenches. The Cornhuskers have been really tough on both the offensive and defensive lines.
Nebraska’s offensive line has not only kept Raiola upright, but they’ve cleared the way for its top three backs to combine for 395 yards at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry. The D-line frustrated Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs all game long, and enters this game ranking 22nd in sack rate.
And the trenches are where I think the Huskers will have an edge in this matchup.
Illinois won’t be a pushover by any means. The Illini are also 3-0, and they looked impressive, beating Kansas 23-17 as 5-point home dogs. However, that win looks a little less impressive following the Jayhawks' loss to UNLV at home last week.
Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has been very effective so far this season, and he’s needed to be because the Illini haven’t run the ball well through three games, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. This will also be Altmyer’s first road game of the season in what should be a hostile environment at Memorial Stadium.
Then there's the Illini defense — while this is an experienced unit, the interior line is missing some big bodies, including star defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton, who’s now in the NFL. And despite the win against Kansas, the Jayhawks still rumbled from 186 yards at 5.6 yards per carry.
That edge in the trenches has me leaning toward Nebraska in this matchup. But there's also a chance Illinois keeps it close in what's projected to be a low-scoring game. Particularly so when you consider both teams play at a snail's pace — Illinois ranks 122nd in seconds per play, while Nebraska ranks 115th.
But we’ve also missed the best number on the total, with the total now sitting at 42.5. So, let’s get a little exotic with this best bet. BetMGM has moneyline and total points props, so I'm taking Nebraska and Under 48.5 at even money.
Illinois vs Nebraska same-game parlay (SGP)
Nebraska moneyline
Under 43.5
Dante Dowdell anytime TD
This same-game parlay is pretty straightforward. We are taking Nebraska on the ML and adding the Under 43.5. I also noted that the Illinois run defense has looked a little suspect at times, while Nebraska seemingly has an unending stable of tough running backs to bring down.
The top Cornhuskers back at the moment is Dante Dowdell. The Oregon transfer has looked great so far with his new team, rushing for 184 yards at a clip of 5.9 per carry. More importantly for this bet, he’s found the end zone three times. I like him to do so again in this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs Nebraska odds
Illinois vs Nebraska live odds
Illinois vs Nebraska opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +8.5 | Nebraska -8.5
- Moneyline: Illinois +265 | Nebraska -330
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Illinois vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis
- Nebraska opened this Big Ten matchup as an 8.5-point home favorite and the Cornhuskers saw the early action, getting as high as -10. Since then, money has come back on Illinois, bringing the line down to as low as 7.5 depending on the sportsbook.
- I lean toward Nebraska in this matchup because I think they are stronger in the trenches, but a potential low-scoring and slow game tends to favor the underdog, so I'll stay away unless it hits 7.
- The total hit the board at 46.5 and early bettors have hammered the Under, dropping the number as low as 42.5.
- The move makes sense, considering the potentially slow pace and heavy dose of running the football usually means low scoring. At 43.5 I think there is still some value on the Under.
Illinois vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Nebraska has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home for +4.80 Units and a 48% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Illinois vs Nebraska.
Illinois vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Illinois vs Nebraska latest injuries
Illinois vs Nebraska weather
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