Indiana vs Iowa Picks and Predictions: Can Hoosiers D-Line Hold Its Own?

The Hoosiers are hoping to continue making noise on the gridiron, but they're running into a solid unit, led by an experienced coach in the opener. Find out if there's value in backing the dogs with our Indiana vs. Iowa picks.

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Sep 3, 2021 • 14:30 ET • 4 min read
Spencer Petras Iowa Hawkeyes college football
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Two Big Ten schools square off this Saturday, starting the season off ranked due to their success last year. These two teams could not be any different, but still gain the respect they deserve in their conference and nationally.

As both the Indiana Hoosiers and Iowa Hawkeyes look to build on promising programs, college football bettors can get the inside info on the right wagers with our Indiana vs. Iowa picks for Saturday, September 4.

Indiana vs Iowa game info

Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Date: Saturday, September 4, 2021
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: Big Ten Network

Indiana vs Iowa odds

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Indiana vs Iowa betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Indiana: Dexter Willaims II QB (Out)
Iowa: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 in their last 7 conference games, while the Under is 8-2-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 11 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Iowa.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

This will be a very intense game. The Big Ten Network will be featuring two ranked teams that want to stand out. Both teams have firepower on the offensive side of the ball, which isn’t too typical in Big Ten play. 

The Indiana Hoosiers bring back sophomore sensation Michael Penix at QB. He threw for 1,645 yards with TD/INT ratio of 14/4 and is rated as the top QB in the Big Ten. He can rely on leading receiver Ty Frofogle, who led the team in receiving yards and TDs last year. There isn’t much in the backfield as far as production. Their best returning running back, Tim Baldwin, had only 22 attempts last year, but averaged 6.4 yards. 

On the defensive side, there are weaknesses. The Hoosiers lost their sack leader in defensive tackle Jerome Johnson. This squad has a hard time stopping the run and getting pressure on the quarterback. The strong suit of this defense is the secondary, led by Tiawan Mullen, who had three interceptions and 3.5 sacks last year.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a very successful season, and look to continue to build on their success. The Hawkeyes finished 2020 at 6-2 after losing the first two games. Iowa brings back seven starters (including QB Spencer Petras) and seven players on defense. The offense was very productive behind lead running back Tyler Goodson, who rushed for 812 yards with an average of 5.3 yards per carry. The wide receiver corps was also solid, with their Top 8 receiving targets all averaging at least 10 yards per reception.

Iowa isn’t known for its passing game, but it was very solid with Petras. He returns this year and expects to make better improvements in the passing game. A strong offensive line also is a solid weapon for the pass and rush game. The Hawkeyes defense should be a plus. Iowa will rely on their stout run defense along with a very strong secondary. The secondary returns all four starters, including Jack Koerner who led the team in interceptions last year.

Iowa loves to establish the run game to set up the passing game. The Indiana Hoosiers are the opposite. They abandon the run game and rely on firepower through the air.  I cannot fault the Hoosiers for doing this because they have one of the best QBs in the conference.

This game really comes down to coaching and line play. It seems to me that Iowa checks both of these boxes over the Indiana Hoosiers. Kirk Ferentz has been with Iowa for 23 years and has the experience of competing with ranked programs. Iowa’s offensive line is no joke. They will be able to dictate the run game and allow Petras time in the pocket to make key plays. 

The Hoosiers’ biggest downfall is their defensive line, because they simply have a hard time stopping the run game. That defensive line can get after the QB, but that will not do any good if they cannot stop the run. The D-line will be on their heels all game with the play action, and that plays right into Iowa’s hands. The last three times there was a -3.5 spread or less, the favorite has won and covered the spread. I will not fall for the trap of taking a Hoosier team getting over a field goal in this game. 

PREDICTION: Iowa -3.5 (-105)

Over/Under pick

Both of these schools have a defense that thrives with the secondary. As for the defensive lines, Iowa holds a significant advantage. Everyone will look at the Hoosiers with their high-powered offense led by Penix. This might not be the game where Penix tears up a secondary. I believe Iowa will control the clock in this game and not allow Indiana to get a ton of time on the offensive side of the ball. Iowa can get after the quarterback, and last year they had 22 sacks for a loss of 153 yards. 

Indiana’s defense has a strong linebacker and defensive back corps this year, despite their unproductive defensive line. The Hoosiers have the No. 1 linebacker unit in the Big Ten, and that could help the defensive line in the run game.

This will be a hard-fought, grind-it-out type of game, in contrast to the shootouts these offenses have had in the past. 

PREDICTION: Under 45.5  (-115)

Indiana vs Iowa betting card

  • Iowa -3.5 (-110)
  • Under 45.5  (-110)

Picks made on 9/2/2021 at 8:00 p.m. ET

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