The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off this Friday when the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) host the No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) in South Bend, Indiana, on Friday night.
Indiana made some serious noise under first-year coach (and Coach of the Year) Curt Cignetti, which is why our early Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions believe the visitors can keep things close.
Read on for my college football picks for Indiana vs. Notre Dame on Friday, December 20.
Indiana vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Indiana +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Indiana Hoosiers have been a feel-good story in college football this season, rising from obscurity to College Football Playoff contender in one short year under Curt Cignetti. The former James Madison coach has done nothing but produce winning seasons as a head coach, and his shrewd maneuvering in the transfer portal paid immediate dividends.
Feel-good stories will only take you so far. Cignetti’s team will need to be at its best in a difficult road environment for a frigid night game in South Bend against a tough Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that has won 10 straight games. The current weather forecast calls for temperatures of 26 to 29 degrees with winds of 10 mph.
Indiana has a multi-faceted offense that can run the ball (12th in rushing success rate) and throw it, too (first in passing success rate). Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, an Ohio transfer, has completed 70.4% of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempt to lead an offense that ranks third in EPA per play and first in success rate.
It’ll be tough to move the ball against this stout Notre Dame defense, but the Irish rank 61st in EPA per rush and 80th in rushing success rate, so there may be opportunities on the ground. Staying ahead of the chains would allow a few plays to open up in the passing game despite the frigid temps.
On the flip side, Notre Dame is very reliant on its ground game offensively. Riley Leonard is a run-first quarterback and pairs with star tailback Jeremiyah Love to form a deadly rushing attack (second in EPA per rush, first in rushing explosiveness).
That makes this a strength-on-strength matchup as Indiana is very disruptive up front (third in line yards, sixth in stuff rate, sixth in front-seven havoc). The Hoosiers excel at stopping the run (ninth in EPA per rush, sixth in rushing success rate, fifth in PFF’s rush defense metric) and should be able to load the box in this game and dare Leonard to beat them through the air in difficult conditions.
Neither team has faced a difficult strength of schedule — Notre Dame is 60th according to ESPN’s FPI, while Indiana is right behind at 67th. Both teams have mostly been crushing inferior opponents all year, but Notre Dame’s loss came to a MAC team while Indiana’s came on the road against Ohio State.
It makes sense for Notre Dame to be the favorite and win the game outright as the home team in difficult weather conditions. However, this spread is over a touchdown, and the numbers point toward this being a close game with thin margins, so I’m backing Indiana +7.5.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There’s no way I’m taking the Over in a frozen game like this where both teams have posted strong defensive metrics all year long. There would need to be a few points of downward line movement to make me even consider doing otherwise.
Both teams have trended toward the Over on the year as Indiana is 9-3 O/U and Notre Dame is 7-5 O/U. That needs some context, however, as both teams have mostly been wiping the floor with overmatched opponents.
Neither team likes to push the pace, posting an identical 2.11 plays per minute in a tie for 100th nationally. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see anything other than a methodical approach from both sides.
Rourke and this vaunted passing attack have posted strong efficiency all year, but it’ll be a tough test on Friday against an Irish secondary that leads the country in EPA per pass and passing success rate. Despite losing star cornerback Benjamin Morrison after six games, Notre Dame still checks in at second in coverage grade, according to PFF.
Indiana’s ground game has worked for much of the year but posted concerning numbers in its two most difficult matchups of the year. The Hoosiers mustered just 40 yards on 28 carries (1.4 YPC) against Michigan and 83 yards on 41 carries (2.0 YPC) against Ohio State). It’s fair to question if another rough day is ahead against defensive coordinator Al Golden, one of the most esteemed coordinators in the sport right now.
Notre Dame might be able to keep the ball moving consistently on the ground behind a strong offensive line and the star duo of Leonard and Love, but that would keep the clock ticking. The going won’t be easy against an Indiana front featuring Mikail Kamara (15 TFL, 10 sacks), James Carpenter (10 TFL, five sacks), and Jailin Walker (nine TFL, two sacks).
This is uncharted territory with Notre Dame hosting a game in late December. Weather will be a factor in this first round of playoff games, and I’m betting that it leads to a low-scoring environment in a game where both teams are fighting for every point.
Indiana vs Notre Dame live odds
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