The Penn State Nittany Lions have two wins against Top-25 opponents through the first month of the season en route to a perfect 4-0 record. It's a stark contast from 2020, when the Nittany Lions started 0-5 — with the first loss coming against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Since that brutal skid, Penn State has won eight straight games dating back to last season and is starting to become a powerhouse program again, as evidenced by the Nittany Lions being double-digit college football betting chalk this weekend when they welcome the Hoosiers to University Park.
Not only will Penn State look for revenge, but it will look to win in style so as to further cement its candidacy for College Football Playoff consideration.
Are the Nittany Lions up to the task? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Penn State on Saturday, October 2.
Indiana vs Penn State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Penn State opened as an 11.5-point home favorite, but has been bet up to 12.5 points at the time of writing, while the total has increased from 52 to 53.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Indiana vs Penn State picks
Picks made on 9/29/2021 at 6:08 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Indiana vs Penn State game info
• Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
• Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Indiana vs Penn State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Indiana: James Head Jr. DL (Questionable).
Penn State: Hakeem Beamon DT (Questionable), Sal Wormley OL (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Penn State.
Indiana vs Penn State predictions
Penn State -12.5 (-110)
The first game of 2020 for Penn State was an overtime loss to Indiana, where the Hoosiers won 36-35 on a controversial last-second two-point conversion. Some think Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. was out of bounds as he dove for the corner of the end zone, while others (and the refs) say he made it. It resulted in Penn State losing a thriller to kick off last season — and starting a losing skid that sunk it's season before it really even got started.
This year, Penn State obviously wants revenge but it's got its eyes on a bigger prize. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 to start the season and are ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 Poll. The Nittany Lions are making noise in the Big Ten and have a legitimate chance at College Football Playoff consideration.
The Nittany Lions are getting it done on both sides of the ball, averaging 31.5 points per game and giving up just 15 per contest — and they averaging almost 100 yards per game more than their opponents.
The offense moves when quarterback Sean Clifford is on his game. So far this season, the redshirt senior has been locked in with 1,158 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and just two interceptions in four games. Clifford has a number of talented playmakers around him that are able to make gamebreaking plays, despite Penn State having a weak offensive line.
Defensively, Penn State has been solid but has struggled in the run game, allowing 122.3 ypg on the ground. Pass coverage, on the other hand, has been spectacular, as the Nittany Lions are holding teams to just 204.5 yards passing per game.
Indiana went 6-1 in the regular season last year, but already has losses in 2021 to ranked opponents in Iowa and Cincinnati — both by multiple scores. The Hoosiers two wins came against lowly Idaho and Western Kentucky, and Indiana only beat Western Kentucky by two points.
The defense is allowing 29.3 ppg while the offense contributes 29.8 ppg. So far, Indiana just hasn’t stacked up well against elite competition — which the Nittany Lions are.
With Penn State at home, I like the defense to work their magic, especially in the secondary. The offense will have success rushing the football and be able to move the ball down the field against Indiana just like Iowa, Cincinnati, and Western Kentucky did.
Over 53.5 (-110)
Penn State has a terrific offense this season, but Indiana is averaging just under 30 per game as well.
The Hoosiers offense struggled to start the season against Iowa but quickly came together in their last three games. They’re capable of running the football and have a veteran quarterback in Penix Jr. under center.
The junior has struggled a bit to start the season, with six interceptions through four games, but he’s better than this — he only had eight interceptions combined in his previous two seasons (12 games).
All six of those picks came against Cincy and Iowa, so Penn State might give Penix a hard time, but I would be shocked if Indiana doesn’t come away with at least 21 points in this game.
That would mean Penn State would need 33 points to cash the Over — a very likely scenario as Indiana allowed 31 to Western Kentucky, 38 to Cincinnati, 34 to Iowa — and even gave up 14 to Idaho!
The Nittany Lions will score more than 30 points in this game. A 35-21 type of score seems likely, which has us going Over the total on Saturday.
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