Iowa State vs Iowa Odds, Picks and Predictions: Expect a Low-Scoring Affair

This article covers a past game! See our Iowa vs Iowa State prediction for the upcoming game on September 9, 2023

It's a rivalry matchup when Iowa and Iowa State lock horns this weekend.

Iowa was the story of the college football world last weekend, but for all the wrong reasons. The Hawkeyes scored just seven points in its win against South Dakota State.

For Iowa State, things were much different. They rolled over Southeastern Missouri State by a score of 45-10. Who grabs this rivalry win?

Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Iowa State.

Iowa State vs Iowa best odds

Iowa State vs Iowa picks and predictions

By now, we've all heard about Iowa last weekend, and if you haven't, I mentioned it at the onset. The boxscore is genuinely marvelous. Iowa ran more plays (61) than they garnered in total rushing yards (59), and QB Spencer Petras passed for just 109 yards on 11 of 25 passing.

It seems fashionable to say that Iowa should improve some this week but what if they don't? Iowa State has the defense to make this a miserable outing for the Hawkeyes. They return Will McDonald who had 22 sacks a season ago, which was good for second in the nation. Petras isn't exactly mobile, and coaches have noted that he needs to get rid of the ball more quickly.

South Dakota State only got to him twice last week, but SDSU's pressure contributed to one interception. Iowa State's rushing defense improved a ton throughout the season, and the Cyclones returned the nuts and bolts of it. In the season's final month, they allowed the second-fewest yards on the ground in the Big 12, narrowly edging out Oklahoma State.

After Petras' performance a week ago, you'd have to think that Iowa will want to run the ball even more. If they do, they may find it tough sledding. As for Iowa and its defense, I expect them to do what they've always done: force turnovers and not give up big plays.

They caused four turnovers in this matchup a season ago, and you'll see many of the same players on the field. Ballhawking corner Riley Moss returns after winning Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year. They also return three different defensive starters who made many plays a season ago.

A couple of combining forces bring me to back either team to score many points. Let's list the most important two: Iowa is going to want to run the ball. The only offensive bright spot from last week was Leshon Williams running for 72 yards.

Both of these teams are also going to force turnovers. For Iowa State, they've limited opponents to less than 300 yards in 20 games since 2017. They've done that by getting opponents behind the sticks. When you do that to this Iowa defense, they will make mistakes. They proved it again last week with two turnovers.

I'm seeing both teams staying under 20 points more often than not. The +290 price on BetMGM is more than appealing.

My best bet: Neither team to score 20 points (+290 at BetMGM) 

Iowa State vs Iowa betting preview

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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

It's challenging to figure out who wins this one, and I'm not going to try. I won't be wagering about it because there are plenty of better options in this matchup. Iowa has a historical dominance and a hold on to this rivalry matchup.

If you removed the two names off the jersey, then I'd be inclined to believe Iowa State wins the game. At the very least, I'd take the points.

But I can't ignore the history here: Iowa is a staggering 22-6 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. That past dominance makes you wonder if there's some mental aspect here.

In just under 50% of the last 28 matchups between these two, Iowa State has been tied or leading going into the fourth quarter. Last season was the first time that trend had broken for a while when Iowa won 27-17. The odd adage of throwing out the statistics regarding rivalries remains true here.

Iowa has a better defense than Iowa State. However, the gap between the two offenses is much more comprehensive. The Cyclones should win, but past history with these two clubs makes me cautious to lay a bet. 

Over/Under analysis

Since the market opened, we've seen one-way betting traffic on the total towards the Under. It opened at 41.5 and has since fallen to as low as 39.5 in a few spots. That's a sign of decent, significant money going towards the Under. 

The Under is 13-3-1 in Iowa State's last 16 games against the Big 10 and 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these schools in Iowa City.

Everything about this matchup is pointing squarely in one direction. We may be dealing with one of the worst Iowa offenses in quite some time. I will not pass up an early season opportunity to fade them, as we may not get a number this good for the rest of the season.

Iowa State vs Iowa game info

• Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network

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Iowa State vs Iowa betting trend to know

Iowa is 22-6 against Iowa State in the last 28 meetings between the two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. Iowa.

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