The No. 22 Texas Longhorns will host one of the top defenses in college football when the Iowa State Cyclones visit Austin on Saturday.
The Longhorns will bring a Top-20 offense into the matchup and the momentum of a 49-point thrashing against one of their fiercest adversaries.
Iowa State will look to halt a three-game losing streak in which the team lost by one possession in each of its last three.
The Longhorns opened as 14-point home favorites at most sportsbooks, with the line moving as much as 2.5 points in their favor over the week. Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for the Week 7 battle between Iowa State and Texas.
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Iowa State vs Texas best odds
Iowa State vs Texas picks and predictions
Freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers made a memorable return to the Longhorns lineup, as he helped Texas pull off a historic 49-0 victory over longtime rival Oklahoma last Saturday.
Ewers, who missed the last three games with a collarbone injury, completed 21 of his 31 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns. He also threw an interception early in the second half after Texas already built a 28-0 lead.
The Longhorns’ romp last week marked Oklahoma’s worst shutout loss in program history and the highest-scoring game for Texas in the Red River Showdown, which dates back to 1900.
Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson accounted for 130 of Texas’ 296 rushing yards and junior wideout Jordan Whittington led all receivers with 97 yards on five catches. Texas finished the game with 34 first downs, went 10-for-15 on third down, and tallied 585 yards of offense while holding Oklahoma to 195 total yards.
The Sooners (3-3) were playing at less than full strength, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel out with a concussion and Pitt transfer Davis Beville getting the start. Beville attempted just 12 passes, and the Sooners finished with 39 yards through the air as they ran the offense out of the Wildcat formation several times throughout the game.
Texas will now go from facing a defense that ranks dead last in the Big 12 in total yards surrendered to the defense that ranks first in that category in the conference. Iowa State is allowing 277.5 yards per contest, 186.5 yards through the air, 91 yards on the ground, and 13.7 points per game, the eighth fewest in the nation.
The Cyclones got off to a hot, 3-0 start to the season but are in the midst of a three-game skid since opening conference play, losing by a combined 11 points. They ran out of time when forging a comeback in a 31-24 loss to a ranked Baylor team, then dropped a road tilt with Kansas, 14-11, before being on the losing end of a one-point decision against No. 17 Kansas State.
Offense is a major issue for Iowa State, ranking last in the Big 12 in total yards (364 per game), rushing yards (106.3), and points per game (23.2). In their last two matchups, the Cyclones have averaged 10 points per outing, and they have managed one touchdown across those games. All of their other points have come on field goals.
With Texas fielding a solid defense of its own and allowing just 17.8 points per game, this should be a low-scoring battle, with both sides trying to figure each other out in the first half.
My best bet: First-half Under 25.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Iowa State vs Texas spread analysis
Iowa State has had Texas’ number the last three years, winning 30-7 last year in Ames after two narrow victories by two and three points in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
This year, though, second-year Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas playing like the powerhouse it once was. The team lost by just one point to then-No. 1 Alabama in Week 2, even with Ewers sustaining his shoulder injury at the end of the first quarter and missing the majority of the contest.
The Longhorns’ other defeat this season was on the road against Texas Tech. The visiting Longhorns were up 31-17 with under five minutes in the third quarter but let the Red Raiders storm back to tie the game and nearly win it on a field goal with 21 seconds remaining, until Texas found a way down the field to tie it up 34-34.
Robinson fumbled on the first play of overtime, giving the Red Raiders the opportunity to win on another field goal in a 37-34 decision. Ewers missed Texas’ Big Ten opener, and backup quarterback Hudson Card finished the game with 277 passing yards and two touchdown passes while playing through a high ankle sprain.
Iowa State’s offense runs through sophomore QB Hunter Dekkers, who’s accumulated 1,514 passing yards on 67.4% passing, with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Cyclones' rushing attack is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has reached paydirt five times this season.
In order to stay in this game, Iowa State will need a back-breaking performance on defense to shut down the surging Longhorns offense and force a turnover or two by a team that’s done a fairly good job of protecting the ball this season.
Iowa State is 2-3-1 against the spread in 2022 and 1-1 ATS on the road, while Texas is 5-1 ATS this season and 4-0 as the home team.
If defense takes over in this matchup, Iowa State can hang around with its rival, but the Longhorns will get the job done at home and break a three-game win streak by the Cyclones in this series.
Iowa State vs Texas Over/Under analysis
The Under has hit in four of the six games each of these teams has played this year, including the two most recent games on each team’s schedule.
The Cyclones scored 42 points against FCS Southeast Missouri State and 43 on the 3-3 Ohio Bobcats out of the MAC, but against four Power 5 teams, they have averaged 13.5 points.
Texas, on the other hand, has posted no fewer than 19 points in a matchup this year and has averaged 40.3 points across three conference tilts.The brunt of the scoring will be done by the home team, whose offense is firing on all cylinders with the return of its stud freshman signal caller.
The Over/Under opened at 49.5 at a majority of sportsbooks and has remained steady throughout the week. Last year’s battle resulted in a total of 37 points and the two prior matchups saw an average score of 43.5.
With the way Iowa State is struggling to find the end zone against top-tier competition, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see a shootout of any kind.
The Under is 5-2 in Iowa State’s last seven games overall and 19-8-1 in the Cyclones’ last 28 road games, while the Under has hit in four of Texas’ last five conference games and the last five home games. It's also 9-3 in Texas' last 12 games overall.
Iowa State vs Texas betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in Iowa State’s last seven games overall and 4-1 in Texas’ last five conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Oklahoma.
Kansas vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, October 15, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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