If you like defense, this might just be the game for you. This rivalry rarely produces points as the Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones have combined for just four total touchdowns and 51 points in their last two games.
That’s an average of just 25.5 points per game when these two teams match up. Going back to Week 1, neither offense was that impressive in their first matchups of the season. Find out who to back with our Iowa vs Iowa State picks for Saturday, September 11.
Iowa vs Iowa State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
There were lines for this game back on June 8, with Iowa favored by five points. Since then, not much has changed, as you can still get Iowa State at -4.5 currently.
The total for this game started at 44.5 and has been bet up to 47 at some books. The number was low due to low volume of scoring in the last two meetings between these two teams. Still, bettors couldn’t resist betting such a small total for two Top-10 teams.
Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
Iowa vs Iowa State picks
Picks made on 9/9/2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa vs Iowa State game info
• Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
• Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Iowa vs Iowa State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Iowa: No injuries reported.
Iowa State: Jaquan Amos (Questionable), Charlie Kolar (Probable), Sean Shaw Jr. (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Iowa State.
Iowa vs Iowa State predictions
Iowa State -4.5 (-110)
For whatever reason, Iowa State always has trouble defeating Northern Iowa. Last week, Iowa State defeated NIU by the score of 16-10 and had a couple scares along the way. Last season, Iowa State started their season with a 31-14 loss to Louisiana, and the year before that, the Cyclones defeated Northern Iowa in triple overtime, 29-26.
This team just struggles in Week 1. However, they found a way to get the win and are moving on to their game against the Hawkeyes. Iowa State is led by a duo of playmakers: Brock Purdy at quarterback and Breece Hall at running back. Purdy made the right decisions against Northern Iowa, totaling 199 yards passing on 21-of-26 passing. While he didn’t have a touchdown, he also didn’t turn the ball over.
Hall struggled to break out for the Cyclones in the running game. He had 23 carries for just 69 yards with a touchdown after rushing for 1,572 yards last season on 279 carries. Iowa State struggled blocking in the run game against Northern Iowa, which doesn’t bode well for them now, having to face Iowa’s rush defense.
Iowa surprised many in their first game of the season, defeating Indiana 34-6, at home. The Hawkeyes took control early and never looked back with fierce defense and a run game that just never lets up.
The Iowa defense held Indiana to 233 yards the entire afternoon after the Hawkeyes didn’t even win the possession battle. This team also had just two penalties for ten yards in the entire game and were flat-out locked in.
The one problem with Iowa is their quarterback, Spencer Petras. He went 13-for-27 in the game against Indiana and threw for just 145 yards. His QBR was fine at 79, but this is a guy who continues to struggle to complete passes. Petras nailed 57.1 percent of passes last season and only 48.1 percent of passes in the first game of the season. He also threw five interceptions with just nine touchdowns last season and doesn’t really average big plays down the field.
Both defenses have been playing lights-out for a while now, but the one offense I trust way more in big spots is Iowa State. Behind Purdy and Hall, the Cyclones just need to play smart and methodical. If they can move the ball down the field with these two leaders, they’ll be just fine.
I’d also get to point out how bad Iowa’s pass protection was. Petras was bad, but the offensive line never really helped. The Iowa State pass rush can do big things against this offensive line and if they disrupt Petras, they’ll create some turnovers of their own.
Under 47 (-110)
Like I said above, these teams have scored 51 points combined in their last two games against each other. In Week 1, both teams allowed a combined 16 points on defense. Although Northern Iowa is “real” competition for Iowa State, the Cyclones did their job on defense and that’s all you can ask for.
Iowa will run the ball plenty in this game and look to keep the ball out of Petras’ hands while the Cyclones will ultimately look to get Breece Hall going on their side of things.
With plenty of running and solid defenses, this game still has an Under feel, despite the number being below 50. The number has steamed up enough where it’s time to go back and take the Under now. We’ve gained an extra field goal in value and that should be helpful.
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