Iowa vs Tennessee Player Props for Citrus Bowl: Nico For Your Thoughts

Prop bet #1: Freshman phenom

Nico Iamaleava was the second highest-rated recruit in the 2023 class just behind Arch Manning at Texas. The 5-star recruit will now get to see his first true action as he played only 52 snaps in mop-up duty throughout the season. It couldn’t come against a bigger test than the Iowa defense. 

The good news for Iamaleava is that the Iowa Hawkeyes are without one of their top defensive backs Cooper DeJean. Without DeJean, the Hawkeye defense allowed 26 points to the Michigan offense in the Big 10 title game and allowed J.J. McCarthy to complete 22/30 passes for 147 yards. 

While that may not seem like much, that game was a blowout by Iowa standards and really did not need much from Michigan in terms of big risky plays. I believe this game script will be much different and I expect a closer game with some riskier plays from the Tennessee Volunteers given that this is a bowl game, and they want to see what their star freshman is made of for next season. 

The game plan from Tennessee will not be to just play conservatively and sneak out a win. They want real reps for their quarterback of the future and want to see what he can do. He will make enough plays in this one to get Over his passing total that is set very low.

Nico Iamaleava prop: Over 178.5 passing yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Safety blanket

Against a tough defense in your first start ever, you must have that safety blanket that you can confidently throw the ball to regardless of coverage. That man will be Squirrel White for Iamaleava. White was the leading receiver this year for the Volunteers with 64 catches. 

Not only was he the leading receiver but he had twice as many receptions as the second leading receiver. The stellar sophomore had only two games with less than 30 yards this season and he averaged 63.7 yards per game on the year. In the final game of the season against Vanderbilt, White had 10 catches for 110 yards. 

The Hawkeyes do tend to allow one receiver to have a big game if they shut down the rest. They allowed the leading receiver to have at least 60 yards in each of their final three games of the season. Only Rutgers and Northwestern failed to have their leading receiver surpass 60 yards against the Hawkeyes. 

I expect the Volunteers to game plan getting Iamaleava comfortable early by calling designed plays for their star receiver to get the ball. Even if the Hawkeyes game plan to stop White, I still expect volume to be enough to get him Over his receiving total here. 

Squirrel White prop: Over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Opting out

The Volunteers will be heavily hurt by opt-outs at one offensive position and that is in the backfield. They will be without top two running backs, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. That will put a ton of pressure on Dylan Sampson to carry the load out of the backfield.  

However, Sampson only had one game this year with more than 13 carries and four games with more than 10 carries. He was successful in two of those four games but saw only 52 yards on 13 carries in the season opener against Virginia and 37 yards on 10 carries in the season finale against Vanderbilt. 

The Iowa defense ranks 11th in the country in rushing yards allowed at 102.5 per game. They also rank sixth in yards per carry allowed at 3.0. It usually takes a heavy volume to break through this Iowa defense on the ground and I do not expect Sampson to see that volume. 

Dylan Sampson prop: Under 66.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)